{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2663c2e-41ec-47db-80f8-a1287a31cccc", "symbol": "BMGB4", "name": "Banco BMG S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.919, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.289, "architecture_energy": 18.399, "architecture_maturity": 28.606, "architecture_confidence": 75.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.52, "rotation_up": 40.47, "upward_expansion": 64.6, "deceleration": 79.43, "rotation_down": 21.07, "downward_expansion": 12.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.250667, 5.250909, 5.226718, 5.168116 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.074296, "distance_from_trend": 0.024773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.417713, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.521485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.992287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083087, "excess_performance": 0.140136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064269, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.521485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021576, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5320400, "relative_activity": 1.190266, "balance": 0.534219, "dry_up": 0.987858, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049102, "annualized_volatility": 0.219671, "from_high_reference": -0.106864, "from_low_reference": 0.625103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.074296, "fair_value_reference": 3.417713, "structural_low": 4.624364, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.022556, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.023588, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.143284, "worst_return": -0.115108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006148, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.055945, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.314397, "worst_return": -0.096654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021997, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306317, "worst_return": 0.017418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.557291, "energy": 43.003003, "activity_lines": [ 5.254667, 5.202909, 5.195619, 5.123989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 3279200, "typical_volume": 4984735.0, "trend": 5.045993, "fair_value": 3.374012, "relative_strength": 13.154019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.426904, "energy": 42.97528, "activity_lines": [ 5.269333, 5.226364, 5.211587, 5.14147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 2754100, "typical_volume": 4694790.0, "trend": 5.060999, "fair_value": 3.395546, "relative_strength": 10.554835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.008169, "energy": 30.31206, "activity_lines": [ 5.280667, 5.250909, 5.226476, 5.159148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 5320400, "typical_volume": 4469925.0, "trend": 5.074296, "fair_value": 3.417713, "relative_strength": 10.992287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.289059, "energy": 18.398672, "activity_lines": [ 5.250667, 5.250909, 5.226718, 5.168116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }