{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2676cba-b511-4726-8172-6e13d86f6748", "symbol": "HMN", "name": "CapitaLand Ascott Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.66, "architecture_energy": 55.849, "architecture_maturity": 30.275, "architecture_confidence": 89.274, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.46, "rotation_up": 17.71, "upward_expansion": 8.82, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 62.17, "downward_expansion": 82.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.872931, 0.877824, 0.884919, 0.893622 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.86, "trend_reference": 0.908554, "distance_from_trend": -0.053441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.839002, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025027, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.064773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113402, "excess_performance": -0.268237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59450500, "relative_activity": 2.470418, "balance": 0.655364, "dry_up": 1.507379, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021344, "annualized_volatility": 0.104057, "from_high_reference": -0.131313, "from_low_reference": 0.037475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.908554, "fair_value_reference": 0.839002, "structural_low": 0.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013879, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004975, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.122994, "worst_return": -0.025641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094971, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.014796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119566, "worst_return": -0.005689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077921, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.028754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237739, "worst_return": -0.000108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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-57.884143, "energy": 59.903053, "activity_lines": [ 0.879142, 0.884118, 0.889334, 0.899036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.879397, "volume": 42351300, "typical_volume": 22849890.0, "trend": 0.910892, "fair_value": 0.838973, "relative_strength": -17.648973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.762997, "energy": 45.446619, "activity_lines": [ 0.878749, 0.882592, 0.888001, 0.896905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.86, "volume": 59450500, "typical_volume": 24064960.0, "trend": 0.908554, "fair_value": 0.839002, "relative_strength": -20.064773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.659886, "energy": 55.848621, "activity_lines": [ 0.872931, 0.877824, 0.884919, 0.893622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }