{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d267a3f6-8a91-4dfa-b3eb-4af851062bc1", "symbol": "OTIS", "name": "Otis Worldwide Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.563, "architecture_energy": 25.058, "architecture_maturity": 82.446, "architecture_confidence": 80.661, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.76, "rotation_up": 25.46, "upward_expansion": 14.15, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 33.52, "downward_expansion": 61.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.902, 72.830727, 73.085367, 75.111925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 73.99, "trend_reference": 78.591163, "distance_from_trend": -0.058546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.924637, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.476314, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16754, "excess_performance": -0.293165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059634, "read": "Falling" 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69.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.013328, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.003128, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.134926, "worst_return": -0.060668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045584, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010352, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.232031, "worst_return": -0.051748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134158, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33245, "worst_return": 0.037027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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72.610182, 73.752925, 76.463849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.93, "volume": 27110430, "typical_volume": 18439948.25, "trend": 79.615964, "fair_value": 88.05907, "relative_strength": -20.111537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.020882, "energy": 30.929112, "activity_lines": [ 72.812667, 72.563818, 73.394201, 75.93627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.95, "volume": 18546515, "typical_volume": 18475820.05, "trend": 79.101383, "fair_value": 87.98197, "relative_strength": -20.46603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.268334, "energy": 34.060509, "activity_lines": [ 72.476, 72.504364, 73.117099, 75.441692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.99, "volume": 14770454, "typical_volume": 17757001.5, "trend": 78.591163, "fair_value": 87.924637, "relative_strength": -20.476314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.563371, "energy": 25.058098, "activity_lines": [ 72.902, 72.830727, 73.085367, 75.111925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }