{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d26d60f2-b3ee-4ed5-9030-bc7c365624e7", "symbol": "SABS", "name": "SAB Biotherapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.055, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.247, "architecture_energy": 14.168, "architecture_maturity": 43.196, "architecture_confidence": 58.006, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.19, "rotation_up": 19.51, "upward_expansion": 11.34, "deceleration": 50.53, "rotation_down": 43.33, "downward_expansion": 65.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.680667, 3.704545, 3.702857, 3.737742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 3.806333, "distance_from_trend": 0.024608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.838642, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015984, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.133706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064748, "excess_performance": -0.252202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005054, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046441, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145398, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2747454, "relative_activity": 0.765231, "balance": 0.754159, "dry_up": 0.694009, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11812, "annualized_volatility": 0.585679, "from_high_reference": -0.242718, "from_low_reference": 1.108108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.806333, "fair_value_reference": 3.838642, "structural_low": 3.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.020372, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.061188, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.520468, "worst_return": -0.342857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.063342, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.253839, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.79717, "worst_return": -0.435567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.171687, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.381009, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.22807, "worst_return": -0.587629, "sufficient": true 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09589, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005848, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.364865, "active": false }, { 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advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.829903, "energy": 14.430597, "activity_lines": [ 3.756, 3.712909, 3.724714, 3.766086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.51, "volume": 3266821, "typical_volume": 4048320.05, "trend": 3.805667, "fair_value": 3.890713, "relative_strength": -5.071609, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.235787, "energy": 18.729509, "activity_lines": [ 3.654, 3.678545, 3.701333, 3.74643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.57, "volume": 1836055, "typical_volume": 3750902.3, "trend": 3.799, "fair_value": 3.862956, "relative_strength": -4.367282, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.450372, "energy": 29.440983, "activity_lines": [ 3.604667, 3.658545, 3.685, 3.731226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.9, "volume": 2747454, "typical_volume": 3590359.15, "trend": 3.806333, "fair_value": 3.838642, "relative_strength": -1.133706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.246545, "energy": 14.168045, "activity_lines": [ 3.680667, 3.704545, 3.702857, 3.737742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }