{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2719619-294e-4b37-8e53-3ce987e97b31", "symbol": "XLK", "name": "State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.489, "architecture_energy": 28.261, "architecture_maturity": 70.354, "architecture_confidence": 78.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.04, "rotation_up": 30.01, "upward_expansion": 59.88, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 21.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 3135.812012, 3161.878218, 3116.425384, 2981.836658 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3211.0, "trend_reference": 2811.92452, "distance_from_trend": 0.141923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3812.9939, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.720201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.325207, "excess_performance": 0.379874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198951, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.325207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 29.823984, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35032, "relative_activity": 0.480944, "balance": 29.823984, "dry_up": 0.133484, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049252, "annualized_volatility": 0.25575, "from_high_reference": -0.427951, "from_low_reference": 0.396087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2811.92452, "fair_value_reference": 3812.9939, "structural_low": 2300.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026064, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.033297, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.109407, "worst_return": -0.044522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113936, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.082607, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.212031, "worst_return": -0.108333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.240799, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.166774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264148, "worst_return": -0.025182, "sufficient": false 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0.047394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111534, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.750555, "energy": 51.808216, "activity_lines": [ 3209.574251, 3209.036208, 3063.784775, 2918.156909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3068.0, "volume": 1801, "typical_volume": 73732.85, "trend": 2777.141235, "fair_value": 3809.801094, "relative_strength": -17.197655, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.526114, "energy": 40.298511, "activity_lines": [ 3157.010677, 3185.591038, 3080.517475, 2937.870513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3040.0, "volume": 923, "typical_volume": 73773.15, "trend": 2792.38352, "fair_value": 3810.579059, "relative_strength": -17.496855, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.868834, "energy": 30.561686, "activity_lines": [ 3113.098014, 3157.424933, 3091.71192, 2954.829143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3211.0, "volume": 35032, "typical_volume": 72840.1, "trend": 2811.92452, "fair_value": 3812.9939, "relative_strength": -11.720201, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.488871, "energy": 28.261408, "activity_lines": [ 3135.812012, 3161.878218, 3116.425384, 2981.836658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }