{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d27340c9-fe72-4841-a84c-e9b6abcd80de", "symbol": "JET2", "name": "Jet2 plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.87, "architecture_energy": 62.893, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.114, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.81, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 65.61, "rotation_down": 46.89, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.289333, 14.609455, 309.708667, 530.193806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.9, "trend_reference": 794.384333, "distance_from_trend": -0.979984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1284.997391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.636191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.987321, "excess_performance": -1.038556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.979984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.822189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.729346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.987321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.24818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4647711, "relative_activity": 1.489881, "balance": 2.24818, "dry_up": 1.353122, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.009424, "annualized_volatility": 6.323869, "from_high_reference": -0.990512, "from_low_reference": 0.277108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 794.384333, "fair_value_reference": 1284.997391, "structural_low": 12.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.011727, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.002135, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.286129, "worst_return": -0.988457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016184, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.426448, "worst_return": -0.986335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040587, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021068, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263366, "worst_return": -0.348202, "sufficient": true }, { 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501.983667, 698.899648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.54, "volume": 3609709, "typical_volume": 3059715.3, "trend": 887.039511, "fair_value": 1299.324094, "relative_strength": -98.809391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.817495, "energy": 67.658312, "activity_lines": [ 14.424667, 76.934182, 432.450857, 639.625667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.4, "volume": 5218407, "typical_volume": 3098594.5, "trend": 840.454333, "fair_value": 1292.072629, "relative_strength": -98.716147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.347233, "energy": 66.858306, "activity_lines": [ 14.836667, 35.675455, 368.483095, 583.39086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.9, "volume": 4647711, "typical_volume": 3119518.25, "trend": 794.384333, "fair_value": 1284.997391, "relative_strength": -98.636191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.870216, "energy": 62.893356, "activity_lines": [ 15.289333, 14.609455, 309.708667, 530.193806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }