{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d27ca0cd-c93c-4921-b01b-4c7bc65f129c", "symbol": "200029", "name": "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.513, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.227, "architecture_energy": 35.242, "architecture_maturity": 19.463, "architecture_confidence": 85.972, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.88, "rotation_up": 13.37, "upward_expansion": 5.05, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 53.33, "downward_expansion": 76.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.97, 3.998006, 4.011953, 4.0363 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.02, "trend_reference": 4.094899, "distance_from_trend": -0.018291, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.086775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.036259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.094595, "excess_performance": -0.101994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018291, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094595, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.750192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 439900, "relative_activity": 0.572761, "balance": 1.750192, "dry_up": 0.674271, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045897, "annualized_volatility": 0.210347, "from_high_reference": -0.262385, "from_low_reference": 0.260188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.094899, "fair_value_reference": 3.086775, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002165, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.000594, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.24537, "worst_return": -0.173913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018062, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.061949, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003693, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.820513, "worst_return": -0.130159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.115244, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.406593, "worst_return": -0.169288, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.533557, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056306, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019486, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.68, "volume": 1264200, "typical_volume": 522549.55, "trend": 2.780302, "fair_value": 3.04041, "relative_strength": -1.074098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.843823, "energy": 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3.04998, "relative_strength": -13.241128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.84544, "energy": 13.751684, "activity_lines": [ 4.055993, 4.068973, 4.036704, 4.074747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.9, "volume": 602908, "typical_volume": 858762.0, "trend": 4.103899, "fair_value": 3.059147, "relative_strength": -6.861589, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.656351, "energy": 30.130007, "activity_lines": [ 3.995333, 4.038219, 4.022004, 4.061356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.9, "volume": 486622, "typical_volume": 846248.1, "trend": 4.098232, "fair_value": 3.068122, "relative_strength": -7.303991, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.288661, "energy": 48.039085, "activity_lines": [ 3.948, 4.007678, 4.010067, 4.048201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.99, "volume": 542022, "typical_volume": 830784.2, "trend": 4.096232, "fair_value": 3.077288, "relative_strength": -3.874481, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.683477, "energy": 43.759913, "activity_lines": [ 3.952667, 3.999656, 4.009033, 4.041218 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.02, "volume": 439900, "typical_volume": 768034.2, "trend": 4.094899, "fair_value": 3.086775, "relative_strength": -8.036259, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.227395, "energy": 35.241529, "activity_lines": [ 3.97, 3.998006, 4.011953, 4.0363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }