{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d27ff036-9503-4641-9c8d-7cda24d8bb3d", "symbol": "AKW", "name": "Akwel SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.328, "architecture_energy": 48.352, "architecture_maturity": 67.201, "architecture_confidence": 80.235, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.68, "rotation_up": 15.69, "upward_expansion": 6.24, "deceleration": 54.31, "rotation_down": 62.92, "downward_expansion": 79.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.574667, 6.646545, 6.751002, 6.857962 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.6, "trend_reference": 7.076006, "distance_from_trend": -0.06727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.749528, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323044, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.164745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160305, "excess_performance": -0.213617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06727, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.432746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16250, "relative_activity": 0.756155, "balance": 1.432746, "dry_up": 0.846149, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037496, "annualized_volatility": 0.204845, "from_high_reference": -0.408072, "from_low_reference": 0.054313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.076006, "fair_value_reference": 9.749528, "structural_low": 6.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.013441, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": -0.018051, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.182473, "worst_return": -0.147122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01066, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024377, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.233824, "worst_return": -0.212598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065907, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.192874, "worst_return": -0.287402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-70.327274, "energy": 74.038795, "activity_lines": [ 6.698667, 6.785186, 6.8471, 6.981232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.42, "volume": 20652, "typical_volume": 23830.75, "trend": 7.176006, "fair_value": 9.856842, "relative_strength": -20.077513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.922341, "energy": 81.876009, "activity_lines": [ 6.590667, 6.709495, 6.80148, 6.928973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.6, "volume": 25984, "typical_volume": 22607.85, "trend": 7.124672, "fair_value": 9.80197, "relative_strength": -18.658884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.999431, "energy": 61.40637, "activity_lines": [ 6.574667, 6.675513, 6.775479, 6.891811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.6, "volume": 16250, "typical_volume": 21490.3, "trend": 7.076006, "fair_value": 9.749528, "relative_strength": -20.164745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.327544, "energy": 48.35195, "activity_lines": [ 6.574667, 6.646545, 6.751002, 6.857962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }