{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d280a706-000c-4897-8e31-b7533b31e734", "symbol": "NEXAM", "name": "Nexam Chemical Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.527, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.074, "architecture_energy": 31.046, "architecture_maturity": 39.726, "architecture_confidence": 48.091, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.67, "rotation_up": 40.74, "upward_expansion": 72.12, "deceleration": 69.29, "rotation_down": 22.82, "downward_expansion": 3.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.242, 3.232182, 3.120905, 3.000624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 2.822, "distance_from_trend": 0.133948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.449487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.586041, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.415929, "excess_performance": 0.354435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206686, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.415929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.709553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 368661, "relative_activity": 1.103306, "balance": 1.709553, "dry_up": 0.901955, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119231, "annualized_volatility": 0.456012, "from_high_reference": -0.230769, "from_low_reference": 0.46789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.822, "fair_value_reference": 3.449487, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037879, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030325, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.106771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0711, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287879, "worst_return": -0.325521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.031723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19697, "worst_return": -0.260417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.184037, "energy": 35.384575, "activity_lines": [ 3.173333, 3.166909, 2.993, 2.870086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.37, "volume": 428180, "typical_volume": 378616.15, "trend": 2.747333, "fair_value": 3.452244, "relative_strength": -0.48029, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.321944, "energy": 38.32926, "activity_lines": [ 3.234667, 3.217455, 3.040429, 2.910129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.32, "volume": 158847, "typical_volume": 366195.35, "trend": 2.771667, "fair_value": 3.450897, "relative_strength": -2.740354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.346436, "energy": 36.981182, "activity_lines": [ 3.271333, 3.244727, 3.078429, 2.947075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2, "volume": 249836, "typical_volume": 349297.55, "trend": 2.798333, "fair_value": 3.450256, "relative_strength": -6.703379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.799626, "energy": 33.499262, "activity_lines": [ 3.255333, 3.239636, 3.100619, 2.97471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 368661, "typical_volume": 334142.05, "trend": 2.822, "fair_value": 3.449487, "relative_strength": -7.586041, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.07436, "energy": 31.046178, "activity_lines": [ 3.242, 3.232182, 3.120905, 3.000624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }