{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d283d4fa-68c8-471a-89e1-a3df5ee8e076", "symbol": "300864", "name": "Academy of Environmental Planning and Design, Co.,Ltd. Nanjing University", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.929, "architecture_energy": 70.972, "architecture_maturity": 11.879, "architecture_confidence": 85.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.79, "rotation_up": 9.54, "upward_expansion": 16.05, "deceleration": 37.68, "rotation_down": 71.64, "downward_expansion": 89.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.446, 19.034727, 20.16743, 20.465622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.719999, "trend_reference": 20.765164, "distance_from_trend": -0.09849, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.514122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.589225, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129495, "excess_performance": -0.136895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.557132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6858798, "relative_activity": 0.78026, "balance": 0.557132, "dry_up": 0.952706, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081085, "annualized_volatility": 0.301954, "from_high_reference": -0.249576, "from_low_reference": 0.111639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.765164, "fair_value_reference": 19.514122, "structural_low": 16.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023174, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.004731, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.180527, "worst_return": -0.137826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002028, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.001145, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.125009, "worst_return": -0.107993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023767, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244332, "worst_return": -0.130532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 20.842338, "fair_value": 19.575136, "relative_strength": -11.40536, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.783093, "energy": 33.7485, "activity_lines": [ 19.962, 20.883715, 21.129461, 21.103232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.02, "volume": 7906733, "typical_volume": 8989004.55, "trend": 20.849799, "fair_value": 19.571478, "relative_strength": -7.092156, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.711598, "energy": 54.204, "activity_lines": [ 19.542667, 20.400863, 20.926952, 20.985662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.58, "volume": 11338831, "typical_volume": 8898329.35, "trend": 20.806046, "fair_value": 19.557218, "relative_strength": -13.906649, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.03201, "energy": 72.713327, "activity_lines": [ 18.833333, 19.745885, 20.603493, 20.774708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.07, "volume": 7394311, "typical_volume": 8819961.8, "trend": 20.774772, "fair_value": 19.540386, "relative_strength": -9.653546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.251475, "energy": 71.293603, "activity_lines": [ 18.483333, 19.282727, 20.346997, 20.598188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.719999, "volume": 6858798, "typical_volume": 8790401.9, "trend": 20.765164, "fair_value": 19.514122, "relative_strength": -10.589225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.92935, "energy": 70.971542, "activity_lines": [ 18.446, 19.034727, 20.16743, 20.465622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }