{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d287bd0e-4f38-4598-a8a7-36a06ceb58f3", "symbol": "PRU", "name": "Prudential plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 89.429, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.787, "architecture_energy": 19.203, "architecture_maturity": 24.554, "architecture_confidence": 59.549, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.23, "rotation_up": 37.93, "upward_expansion": 25.74, "deceleration": 40.01, "rotation_down": 22.34, "downward_expansion": 48.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1073.7, 1052.890909, 1058.480952, 1068.15428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1044.5, "trend_reference": 1087.478697, "distance_from_trend": -0.039521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 875.271828, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.294206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115841, "excess_performance": -0.167077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141098, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60480845, "relative_activity": 2.172251, "balance": 1.00676, "dry_up": 1.399117, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068892, "annualized_volatility": 0.315624, "from_high_reference": -0.156193, "from_low_reference": 0.101793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1087.478697, "fair_value_reference": 875.271828, "structural_low": 948.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036891, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.052884, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.132871, "worst_return": -0.135507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105823, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.112991, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.258997, "worst_return": -0.207116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091318, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.077409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.450046, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1044.0, "volume": 27743121, "typical_volume": 26931168.25, "trend": 1094.430589, "fair_value": 874.515745, "relative_strength": -7.974232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.347647, "energy": 23.438108, "activity_lines": [ 1032.533333, 1026.08, 1053.345633, 1069.567602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1096.0, "volume": 30767155, "typical_volume": 27044429.1, "trend": 1092.635492, "fair_value": 874.488074, "relative_strength": -4.60658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.774934, "energy": 15.220404, "activity_lines": [ 1056.166667, 1036.365455, 1056.243768, 1069.668855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1116.0, "volume": 36828384, "typical_volume": 27440484.1, "trend": 1091.340416, "fair_value": 875.037047, "relative_strength": -4.034778, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.74738, "energy": 16.352241, "activity_lines": [ 1080.5, 1050.996364, 1060.874591, 1071.176242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1044.5, "volume": 60480845, "typical_volume": 27842474.1, "trend": 1087.478697, "fair_value": 875.271828, "relative_strength": -10.294206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.787493, "energy": 19.202558, "activity_lines": [ 1073.7, 1052.890909, 1058.480952, 1068.15428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }