{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d289c2b0-d559-4d9f-9890-5f620f444f37",
    "symbol": "EMN",
    "name": "Eastman Chemical Company",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 81.731,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -23.715,
    "architecture_energy": 11.808,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.632,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.789,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 59.16,
        "rotation_up": 21.71,
        "upward_expansion": 14.26,
        "deceleration": 37.01,
        "rotation_down": 38.21,
        "downward_expansion": 64.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        70.491333,
        70.211038,
        71.188253,
        71.407047
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 73.64,
    "trend_reference": 71.505697,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.029848,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 77.566416,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05062,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.386459,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.02667,
    "excess_performance": -0.152295,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029848,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046143,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05062,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013058,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023865,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019633,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02667,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.83738,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6104393,
      "relative_activity": 1.00207,
      "balance": 0.83738,
      "dry_up": 1.059639,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.061938,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.298527,
      "from_high_reference": -0.097102,
      "from_low_reference": 0.360807
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 71.505697,
      "fair_value_reference": 77.566416,
      "structural_low": 63.877236,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.003099,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020359,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.081707,
        "worst_return": -0.102266,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.0051,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01217,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.134503,
        "worst_return": -0.191782,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.055343,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025366,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.139268,
        "worst_return": -0.266691,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.192292,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.131859,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.014343,
        "worst_return": -0.193019,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.03219,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.045215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.052049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.087912,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.049052,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.059114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.085353,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.242669,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.082494,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.127567,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.174295,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.036236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.01804,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041437,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 77.815886,
        "relative_strength": -2.740949,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 77.774723,
        "relative_strength": -6.753142,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 77.714159,
        "relative_strength": -9.126038,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.872029,
        "energy": 27.403073,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 68.6,
        "volume": 5586976,
        "typical_volume": 6578053.65,
        "trend": 70.850025,
        "fair_value": 77.658437,
        "relative_strength": -5.797052,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.881549,
        "energy": 38.083321,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.918,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 68.2,
        "volume": 6781319,
        "typical_volume": 6540166.9,
        "trend": 71.054486,
        "fair_value": 77.604808,
        "relative_strength": -5.309507,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.119166,
        "energy": 43.85544,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.436,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 69.95,
        "volume": 7347668,
        "typical_volume": 6399582.55,
        "trend": 71.290572,
        "fair_value": 77.573643,
        "relative_strength": -3.981924,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.282013,
        "energy": 45.216433,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.823333,
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          70.971685,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 73.64,
        "volume": 6104393,
        "typical_volume": 6091784.0,
        "trend": 71.505697,
        "fair_value": 77.566416,
        "relative_strength": -2.386459,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.714565,
        "energy": 11.807561,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}