{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d28dcf7b-f757-447e-b38e-33ab279de3aa", "symbol": "HIJS", "name": "HSBC MSCI Japan Islamic Screened UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.733, "architecture_energy": 27.146, "architecture_maturity": 64.879, "architecture_confidence": 89.844, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.27, "rotation_up": 29.56, "upward_expansion": 59.88, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 36.11, "downward_expansion": 21.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.653999, 23.941636, 23.728048, 23.234925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.219999, "trend_reference": 22.562, "distance_from_trend": 0.073486, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.504494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308871, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.382467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147323, "excess_performance": 0.094012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071151, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019505, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073825, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17030, "relative_activity": 2.086831, "balance": 0.934935, "dry_up": 1.604427, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041034, "annualized_volatility": 0.224074, "from_high_reference": -0.034675, "from_low_reference": 0.354586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.562, "fair_value_reference": 18.504494, "structural_low": 20.280001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024026, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051242, "worst_return": 0.002595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.164768, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.102307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166589, "worst_return": 0.162948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.242865, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.2354, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242865, "worst_return": 0.242865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013856, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059596, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050759, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 15.41, "volume": 8830, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.549538, "energy": 31.994672, "activity_lines": [ 23.904667, 24.088728, 23.611667, 23.073247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 11394, "typical_volume": 7469.25, "trend": 22.441333, "fair_value": 18.465876, "relative_strength": 5.034357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.670007, "energy": 23.314474, "activity_lines": [ 23.533333, 23.907091, 23.618429, 23.120172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.219999, "volume": 17030, "typical_volume": 8160.7, "trend": 22.562, "fair_value": 18.504494, "relative_strength": 7.382467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.732796, "energy": 27.146453, "activity_lines": [ 23.653999, 23.941636, 23.728048, 23.234925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }