{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d28e4a7c-217d-4f76-8cda-4557082520a2", "symbol": "XRES", "name": "Invesco Real Estate S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.652, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.929, "architecture_energy": 49.984, "architecture_maturity": 45.437, "architecture_confidence": 48.997, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.26, "rotation_up": 53.49, "upward_expansion": 75.76, "deceleration": 69.33, "rotation_down": 20.02, "downward_expansion": 7.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.404334, 24.288273, 23.900357, 23.508011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.120001, "trend_reference": 22.969, "distance_from_trend": 0.050111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.560139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.165759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128157, "excess_performance": -0.042734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128157, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286287, "relative_activity": 1.949376, "balance": 0.723426, "dry_up": 1.502119, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028591, "annualized_volatility": 0.157869, "from_high_reference": -0.054885, "from_low_reference": 0.172296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.969, "fair_value_reference": 21.560139, "structural_low": 21.215, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010394, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015207, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.077138, "worst_return": -0.168714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013101, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.018721, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.109331, "worst_return": -0.172241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.0085, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.15326, "worst_return": -0.094461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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23.981, 23.737, 23.3045, 22.930882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.875, "volume": 301128, "typical_volume": 122056.35, "trend": 22.472333, "fair_value": 21.422588, "relative_strength": -6.987138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.705415, "energy": 52.099075, "activity_lines": [ 23.962667, 23.798091, 23.390976, 23.027935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.705, "volume": 152345, "typical_volume": 127421.1, "trend": 22.604, "fair_value": 21.45803, "relative_strength": -2.197766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.676781, "energy": 66.686449, "activity_lines": [ 24.215333, 23.995818, 23.549643, 23.171978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.08, "volume": 300381, "typical_volume": 133780.85, "trend": 22.753167, "fair_value": 21.494876, "relative_strength": -0.384776, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.089631, "energy": 72.551276, "activity_lines": [ 24.547, 24.234455, 23.734143, 23.33172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.235001, "volume": 143397, "typical_volume": 137241.9, "trend": 22.869333, "fair_value": 21.527819, "relative_strength": -4.181011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.50169, "energy": 54.187311, "activity_lines": [ 24.488, 24.278818, 23.826643, 23.427323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.120001, "volume": 286287, "typical_volume": 146860.85, "trend": 22.969, "fair_value": 21.560139, "relative_strength": -7.165759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.929438, "energy": 49.983656, "activity_lines": [ 24.404334, 24.288273, 23.900357, 23.508011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }