{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2938fa5-3965-4d5e-b098-c5d31f55982a", "symbol": "SFIX", "name": "Stitch Fix", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.847, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.736, "architecture_energy": 16.902, "architecture_maturity": 18.921, "architecture_confidence": 56.424, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.38, "rotation_up": 38.15, "upward_expansion": 42.78, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 32.12, "downward_expansion": 12.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.930667, 3.914, 3.787095, 3.716269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.2, "trend_reference": 3.771, "distance_from_trend": 0.113763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.830064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096587, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.485599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018692, "excess_performance": -0.206145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113763, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096587, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170279, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183047, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.548668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8928938, "relative_activity": 0.965212, "balance": 2.548668, "dry_up": 0.772016, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13196, "annualized_volatility": 0.66827, "from_high_reference": -0.292929, "from_low_reference": 0.423729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.771, "fair_value_reference": 3.830064, "structural_low": 2.95, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.000563, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.430595, "worst_return": -0.410995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.19238, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.263846, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.502778, "worst_return": -0.431822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006073, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.206145, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.517134, "worst_return": -0.686397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.370493, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.495327, "worst_return": -0.910635, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102138, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.430595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-20.641648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.353987, "energy": 11.817903, "activity_lines": [ 3.854667, 3.816818, 3.691976, 3.698075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.58, "volume": 5966845, "typical_volume": 9921206.0, "trend": 3.833667, "fair_value": 3.834167, "relative_strength": -23.021588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.341967, "energy": 14.891627, "activity_lines": [ 3.730667, 3.795455, 3.69231, 3.678247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.02, "volume": 7645601, "typical_volume": 9393967.85, "trend": 3.797, "fair_value": 3.830192, "relative_strength": -13.471541, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.811059, "energy": 9.007715, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 3.844636, 3.732881, 3.690269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.2, "volume": 8928938, "typical_volume": 9250753.65, "trend": 3.771, "fair_value": 3.830064, "relative_strength": -13.485599, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.736091, "energy": 16.902134, "activity_lines": [ 3.930667, 3.914, 3.787095, 3.716269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }