{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2962a6e-6db7-457b-bb1d-f95ab10ecd48", "symbol": "AAA", "name": "INVESTMENT MANAGERS SERIES TR II ALTERNATIVE ACCESS FIRST PRIORITY CLO BD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.36, "architecture_energy": 43.059, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.902, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.15, "rotation_up": 55.06, "upward_expansion": 80.3, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 17.41, "downward_expansion": 6.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.927376, 24.897459, 24.859091, 24.818943 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.975, "trend_reference": 24.758605, "distance_from_trend": 0.00874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.336065, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.456917, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014259, "excess_performance": -0.111366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006553, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20450, "relative_activity": 0.443454, "balance": 0.828474, "dry_up": 0.413632, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007182, "annualized_volatility": 0.017836, "from_high_reference": -0.001799, "from_low_reference": 0.044635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.758605, "fair_value_reference": 23.336065, "structural_low": 24.485926, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.005113, "positive_rate": 0.891304, "directional_follow_through": 0.891304, "median_excess_return": -0.012811, "regime_survival": 0.978261, "best_return": 0.01204, "worst_return": -0.004994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04151, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027736, "worst_return": 0.002159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033813, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092535, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0457, "worst_return": 0.015915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.827625, "energy": 26.791563, "activity_lines": [ 24.851714, 24.847282, 24.808673, 24.767058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.844471, "volume": 13963, "typical_volume": 47796.55, "trend": 24.710955, "fair_value": 23.261482, "relative_strength": -7.085548, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.556305, "energy": 19.657571, "activity_lines": [ 24.848408, 24.84954, 24.815359, 24.776675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.944088, "volume": 24926, "typical_volume": 47767.35, "trend": 24.726508, "fair_value": 23.286651, "relative_strength": -5.950585, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.556127, "energy": 30.542788, "activity_lines": [ 24.87826, 24.868353, 24.831018, 24.791716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.915, "volume": 16960, "typical_volume": 46915.05, "trend": 24.741475, "fair_value": 23.311466, "relative_strength": -6.792682, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.077784, "energy": 29.966363, "activity_lines": [ 24.896378, 24.87869, 24.842682, 24.803877 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.975, "volume": 20450, "typical_volume": 46115.3, "trend": 24.758605, "fair_value": 23.336065, "relative_strength": -9.456917, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.360324, "energy": 43.059493, "activity_lines": [ 24.927376, 24.897459, 24.859091, 24.818943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }