{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2975519-54b6-49fc-a941-8a1c74a2b529", "symbol": "CNCK", "name": "Coincheck Group N.V. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.017, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.696, "architecture_energy": 15.133, "architecture_maturity": 24.062, "architecture_confidence": 54.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.27, "rotation_up": 44.46, "upward_expansion": 41.59, "deceleration": 39.78, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 16.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.294, 2.294727, 2.134619, 2.104323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.14, "trend_reference": 2.166333, "distance_from_trend": -0.012156, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.504023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.524869, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.123492, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126531, "excess_performance": -0.313984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.524869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.229572, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126531, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.528462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2467565, "relative_activity": 0.698816, "balance": 17.528462, "dry_up": 0.237757, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215349, "annualized_volatility": 0.915791, "from_high_reference": -0.77014, "from_low_reference": 0.53405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.166333, "fair_value_reference": 4.504023, "structural_low": 1.395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.256944, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 12.03, "volume": 1230301, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.279333, 2.106, 1.98481, 2.059785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.88, "volume": 337331, "typical_volume": 3412404.6, "trend": 2.237667, "fair_value": 4.585595, "relative_strength": -18.632689, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.929906, "energy": 66.937901, "activity_lines": [ 2.526, 2.263273, 2.071286, 2.102602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.72, "volume": 161926, "typical_volume": 3406639.45, "trend": 2.212333, "fair_value": 4.563647, "relative_strength": -20.280324, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.079606, "energy": 69.883765, "activity_lines": [ 2.640667, 2.372182, 2.140286, 2.13372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 391326, "typical_volume": 3420341.95, "trend": 2.183333, "fair_value": 4.531512, "relative_strength": -46.303246, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.859824, "energy": 37.758565, "activity_lines": [ 2.396, 2.301273, 2.119952, 2.107118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.14, "volume": 2467565, "typical_volume": 3531066.5, "trend": 2.166333, "fair_value": 4.504023, "relative_strength": -38.123492, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.695815, "energy": 15.133402, "activity_lines": [ 2.294, 2.294727, 2.134619, 2.104323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }