{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d29ce06c-29bb-4758-b45d-921f49898eb3", "symbol": "SFR", "name": "Sandfire Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.913, "architecture_energy": 29.415, "architecture_maturity": 20.082, "architecture_confidence": 60.375, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.02, "rotation_up": 40.31, "upward_expansion": 66.63, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 25.34, "downward_expansion": 9.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.398, 19.264182, 19.008047, 18.65714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.1, "trend_reference": 18.467667, "distance_from_trend": 0.142537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.66391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.808999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.382845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137466, "excess_performance": 0.073761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.808999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.173828, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022489, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137466, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.487296, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10465959, "relative_activity": 1.557798, "balance": 1.487296, "dry_up": 1.193736, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077762, "annualized_volatility": 0.428624, "from_high_reference": -0.029885, "from_low_reference": 0.839582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.467667, "fair_value_reference": 11.66391, "structural_low": 14.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.061873, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.058422, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.29759, "worst_return": -0.067083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.142077, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.087197, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.23253, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.320482, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.328618, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.534634, "worst_return": -0.106454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.487952, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.380906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.70674, "worst_return": -0.138602, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063291, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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19.667333, 19.278727, 18.485333, 18.361613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.34, "volume": 1174253, "typical_volume": 7793544.35, "trend": 18.250333, "fair_value": 11.260128, "relative_strength": 17.652209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.433613, "energy": 42.180147, "activity_lines": [ 19.557333, 19.381091, 18.598476, 18.437204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.83, "volume": 6105833, "typical_volume": 7609721.45, "trend": 18.307667, "fair_value": 11.339744, "relative_strength": 14.038851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.289601, "energy": 26.507924, "activity_lines": [ 19.296666, 19.349272, 18.660857, 18.474602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.639999, "volume": 6320496, "typical_volume": 7488956.95, "trend": 18.332667, "fair_value": 11.414615, "relative_strength": 6.123241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.399349, "energy": 15.564044, "activity_lines": [ 18.669333, 19.063818, 18.609952, 18.431527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.52, "volume": 9358819, "typical_volume": 7470686.05, "trend": 18.354333, "fair_value": 11.49109, "relative_strength": 10.785753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.978332, "energy": 18.100018, "activity_lines": [ 18.481333, 18.945091, 18.655, 18.443613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 5934861, "typical_volume": 7040600.6, "trend": 18.386, "fair_value": 11.570128, "relative_strength": 9.845814, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.307561, "energy": 17.783483, "activity_lines": [ 18.583333, 18.912, 18.73419, 18.482043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.1, "volume": 10465959, "typical_volume": 6718430.75, "trend": 18.467667, "fair_value": 11.66391, "relative_strength": 17.382845, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.912875, "energy": 29.414653, "activity_lines": [ 19.398, 19.264182, 19.008047, 18.65714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }