{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d29e2408-40e2-4614-bd83-b9dc7ff1218c", "symbol": "AVXL", "name": "Anavex Life Sciences Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.393, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.204, "architecture_energy": 15.751, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.998, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.33, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 43.59, "rotation_down": 26.9, "downward_expansion": 60.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.812, 2.711273, 2.780595, 3.010183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 3.412833, "distance_from_trend": -0.021341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.400962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.478203, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.769129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.185366, "excess_performance": -0.372819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.478203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054494, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.417691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913605, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6490096, "relative_activity": 0.998043, "balance": 0.913605, "dry_up": 0.833546, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112879, "annualized_volatility": 0.843128, "from_high_reference": -0.71453, "from_low_reference": 0.481153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.412833, "fair_value_reference": 6.400962, "structural_low": 2.255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.005495, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.044633, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.429708, "worst_return": -0.365591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.098843, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.111785, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.959302, "worst_return": -0.456556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.203996, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.402843, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.039139, "worst_return": -0.491368, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003247, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106933, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195513, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.897536, "energy": 47.488096, "activity_lines": [ 2.552, 2.581273, 2.739619, 3.016903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 6490096, "typical_volume": 6502822.35, "trend": 3.412833, "fair_value": 6.400962, "relative_strength": -41.769129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.204435, "energy": 15.75119, "activity_lines": [ 2.812, 2.711273, 2.780595, 3.010183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }