{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d29ec5c0-3181-42e6-8edb-2371221d32cf", "symbol": "GRAB", "name": "Grab Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.1, "architecture_energy": 28.244, "architecture_maturity": 63.002, "architecture_confidence": 91.053, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.06, "rotation_up": 21.33, "upward_expansion": 6.49, "deceleration": 45.26, "rotation_down": 50.37, "downward_expansion": 72.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.553333, 3.590909, 3.597333, 3.660774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.66, "trend_reference": 3.803667, "distance_from_trend": -0.037771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.118974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.760443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.330311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111429, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 310674405, "relative_activity": 1.237463, "balance": 0.940395, "dry_up": 0.976356, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087852, "annualized_volatility": 0.411097, "from_high_reference": -0.44713, "from_low_reference": 0.150943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.803667, "fair_value_reference": 4.118974, "structural_low": 3.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.043668, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.021331, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.524, "worst_return": -0.223097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006349, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.066848, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.46063, "worst_return": -0.151282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114391, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043858, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.277293, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.57, "volume": 176443115, "typical_volume": 239560616.75, "trend": 3.957333, "fair_value": 4.121346, "relative_strength": -30.921382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.632506, "energy": 20.108309, "activity_lines": [ 3.729333, 3.628909, 3.641095, 3.739914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.31, "volume": 202895613, "typical_volume": 239674455.15, "trend": 3.896, "fair_value": 4.118462, "relative_strength": -34.118761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.865145, "energy": 21.783596, "activity_lines": [ 3.598, 3.580545, 3.606905, 3.698151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.5, "volume": 290473088, "typical_volume": 243976161.1, "trend": 3.843333, "fair_value": 4.117949, "relative_strength": -30.056351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.768853, "energy": 25.506356, "activity_lines": [ 3.547333, 3.571091, 3.594, 3.672602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.66, "volume": 310674405, "typical_volume": 251057545.95, "trend": 3.803667, "fair_value": 4.118974, "relative_strength": -29.760443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.100407, "energy": 28.243597, "activity_lines": [ 3.553333, 3.590909, 3.597333, 3.660774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }