{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2a0a431-dbfb-499d-98e1-a3ab5d3f1718", "symbol": "SBIN", "name": "State Bank of India", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.691, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.04, "architecture_energy": 32.8, "architecture_maturity": 18.026, "architecture_confidence": 76.521, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 56.83, "upward_expansion": 42.77, "deceleration": 28.78, "rotation_down": 20.25, "downward_expansion": 20.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1051.01333, 1042.974548, 1027.202846, 1033.598694 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1097.199951, "trend_reference": 1044.625488, "distance_from_trend": 0.050329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 805.572624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.434612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047428, "excess_performance": 0.091137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.124346, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047428, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805928, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70991640, "relative_activity": 1.24453, "balance": 0.805928, "dry_up": 0.968086, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035568, "annualized_volatility": 0.286073, "from_high_reference": -0.095345, "from_low_reference": 0.398844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1044.625488, "fair_value_reference": 805.572624, "structural_low": 933.900024, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002526, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000678, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.151319, "worst_return": -0.076309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021202, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00739, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.114811, "worst_return": -0.178974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13738, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.059474, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.438122, 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1018.945076, 1031.510546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1044.300049, "volume": 50380326, "typical_volume": 59883463.35, "trend": 1037.080111, "fair_value": 796.153194, "relative_strength": 9.83033, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.49493, "energy": 22.589148, "activity_lines": [ 1040.760018, 1024.850014, 1020.106006, 1032.15131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1015.0, "volume": 60989795, "typical_volume": 59304958.45, "trend": 1039.273753, "fair_value": 798.919564, "relative_strength": 8.716525, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.847102, "energy": 12.684584, "activity_lines": [ 1032.373348, 1026.260012, 1019.124658, 1030.726787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1027.400024, "volume": 38528211, "typical_volume": 57177351.5, "trend": 1040.811664, "fair_value": 802.024957, "relative_strength": 6.721371, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.036967, "energy": 9.156094, "activity_lines": [ 1029.460018, 1028.982741, 1019.837417, 1029.96074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1097.199951, "volume": 70991640, "typical_volume": 57042939.65, "trend": 1044.625488, "fair_value": 805.572624, "relative_strength": 12.434612, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.039814, "energy": 32.800142, "activity_lines": [ 1051.01333, 1042.974548, 1027.202846, 1033.598694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }