{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2a29ee0-408c-4e83-9d40-b7a6fb9694fd", "symbol": "4966", "name": "Parade Technologies, Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.568, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.493, "architecture_energy": 36.039, "architecture_maturity": 32.627, "architecture_confidence": 67.514, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.8, "rotation_up": 16.29, "upward_expansion": 21.56, "deceleration": 52.5, "rotation_down": 58.01, "downward_expansion": 48.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 582.333333, 602.563636, 641.569048, 625.857675 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 570.0, "trend_reference": 600.811016, "distance_from_trend": -0.051282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 731.532591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.287085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118949, "excess_performance": -0.322423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051282, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3330049, "relative_activity": 0.313943, "balance": 0.809603, "dry_up": 0.415234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157355, "annualized_volatility": 0.643754, "from_high_reference": -0.386437, "from_low_reference": 0.229773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 600.811016, "fair_value_reference": 731.532591, "structural_low": 463.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111465, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.062417, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.132353, "worst_return": -0.189677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047898, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.152941, "worst_return": -0.265806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.182196, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.19673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031292, "worst_return": -0.244092, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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593.066667, 614.872727, 647.913133, 627.955804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 570.0, "volume": 3330049, "typical_volume": 10607176.9, "trend": 600.811016, "fair_value": 731.532591, "relative_strength": -37.287085, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.49264, "energy": 36.039127, "activity_lines": [ 582.333333, 602.563636, 641.569048, 625.857675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }