{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2a6b078-bc17-4d85-ac8e-4290d7787eeb", "symbol": "DBC", "name": "Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.35, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.767, "architecture_energy": 35.19, "architecture_maturity": 42.07, "architecture_confidence": 52.252, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.7, "rotation_up": 64.16, "upward_expansion": 67.72, "deceleration": 64.95, "rotation_down": 9.44, "downward_expansion": 11.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.208667, 28.568727, 28.848762, 28.642495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.91, "trend_reference": 27.847667, "distance_from_trend": 0.038148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.444165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.990023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.204082, "excess_performance": 0.078457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0199, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.204082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.589198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5607596, "relative_activity": 0.851866, "balance": 0.589198, "dry_up": 0.841097, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04438, "annualized_volatility": 0.233892, "from_high_reference": -0.090595, "from_low_reference": 0.383553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.847667, "fair_value_reference": 22.444165, "structural_low": 23.52, "invalidation": "A 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"energy": 31.380399, "activity_lines": [ 27.16, 27.999455, 28.67581, 28.108376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.98, "volume": 7088744, "typical_volume": 7161087.15, "trend": 27.165333, "fair_value": 22.289652, "relative_strength": 7.213357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.537665, "energy": 22.509229, "activity_lines": [ 27.697333, 28.039818, 28.703762, 28.240215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.1, "volume": 5017687, "typical_volume": 6946412.45, "trend": 27.412, "fair_value": 22.344564, "relative_strength": 11.619423, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.842705, "energy": 22.411131, "activity_lines": [ 28.579333, 28.307818, 28.819905, 28.429548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.45, "volume": 4432811, "typical_volume": 6580714.2, "trend": 27.647333, "fair_value": 22.396039, "relative_strength": 7.760544, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.700864, "energy": 32.819003, "activity_lines": [ 29.08, 28.477455, 28.86181, 28.561032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.91, "volume": 5607596, "typical_volume": 6582724.6, "trend": 27.847667, "fair_value": 22.444165, "relative_strength": 1.990023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.767016, "energy": 35.190372, "activity_lines": [ 29.208667, 28.568727, 28.848762, 28.642495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }