{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2ab233b-546d-44ee-8d9c-6d6311c1045b", "symbol": "HOOT4", "name": "Hot\u00e9is Othon S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.942, "architecture_energy": 60.471, "architecture_maturity": 7.158, "architecture_confidence": 70.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.09, "rotation_up": 14.32, "upward_expansion": 26.56, "deceleration": 49.41, "rotation_down": 71.1, "downward_expansion": 53.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.738, 6.882545, 6.969333, 6.966559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.51, "trend_reference": 6.958667, "distance_from_trend": -0.064476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.846474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.692459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.384583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104539, "excess_performance": -0.047491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05461, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.692459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043846, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67243, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5500, "relative_activity": 0.286309, "balance": 0.67243, "dry_up": 0.98126, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036039, "annualized_volatility": 0.492492, "from_high_reference": -0.243023, "from_low_reference": 0.854701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.958667, "fair_value_reference": 3.846474, "structural_low": 5.81, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13278, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028777, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.407407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.656489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.32, "volume": 17600, "typical_volume": 126825.0, "trend": 1.654333, "fair_value": 2.374487, "relative_strength": 43.749629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.011676, "energy": 37.44974, "activity_lines": [ 2.383333, 2.402, 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32.612783, "energy": 23.825494, "activity_lines": [ 2.236, 2.232, 2.280286, 2.119419 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 2.4, "volume": 64800, "typical_volume": 86705.0, "trend": 1.894333, "fair_value": 2.351795, "relative_strength": 45.542214, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.691917, "energy": 34.669054, "activity_lines": [ 2.297333, 2.255818, 2.29519, 2.154839 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 2.41, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 67500.0, "trend": 1.938333, "fair_value": 2.350064, "relative_strength": 42.836396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.45565, "energy": 35.910741, "activity_lines": [ 2.345333, 2.282909, 2.307048, 2.188108 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 2.8, "volume": 49200, "typical_volume": 65890.0, "trend": 1.996667, "fair_value": 2.350577, "relative_strength": 67.029169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.131333, 7.116, 7.04819, 6.990796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.98, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 18935.0, "trend": 6.863, "fair_value": 3.734872, "relative_strength": 10.930084, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.107297, "energy": 15.11378, "activity_lines": [ 7.080667, 7.095455, 7.046238, 7.000473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.95, "volume": 35700, "typical_volume": 20085.0, "trend": 6.9, "fair_value": 3.763782, "relative_strength": 12.471546, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.116, "energy": 13.755907, "activity_lines": [ 7.021333, 7.070727, 7.042143, 7.006086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 18710.0, "trend": 6.933667, "fair_value": 3.792756, "relative_strength": 12.375457, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.683164, "energy": 16.187062, "activity_lines": [ 6.998667, 7.055273, 7.043667, 7.012538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.66, "volume": 24500, "typical_volume": 19145.0, "trend": 6.949, "fair_value": 3.82, "relative_strength": 4.019105, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.510348, "energy": 40.674518, "activity_lines": [ 6.878667, 6.979091, 7.013286, 6.994882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.51, "volume": 5500, "typical_volume": 19210.0, "trend": 6.958667, "fair_value": 3.846474, "relative_strength": 4.384583, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.942187, "energy": 60.470953, "activity_lines": [ 6.738, 6.882545, 6.969333, 6.966559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }