{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2b109f2-7d3f-4b5f-bbeb-17ed92906e13", "symbol": "ALESA", "name": "Ecoslops S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.269, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.539, "architecture_energy": 16.605, "architecture_maturity": 17.845, "architecture_confidence": 54.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.21, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 14.96, "deceleration": 51.55, "rotation_down": 42.0, "downward_expansion": 40.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.126, 1.138, 1.169119, 1.174789 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 1.134533, "distance_from_trend": -0.048067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.953503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132665, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.224983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.301205, "excess_performance": 0.247893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132665, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.301205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17242, "relative_activity": 0.217024, "balance": 0.836295, "dry_up": 0.570695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142806, "annualized_volatility": 1.045158, "from_high_reference": -0.409836, "from_low_reference": 0.646341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.134533, "fair_value_reference": 0.953503, "structural_low": 0.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.038916, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.01479, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.88, "worst_return": -0.255385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002217, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.010482, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.546667, "worst_return": -0.408635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035477, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.075651, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.100251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065163, "worst_return": -0.084257, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.31203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104218, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", 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7.105668, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.447459, "energy": 8.136205, "activity_lines": [ 1.145, 1.178636, 1.209586, 1.159275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.17, "volume": 50819, "typical_volume": 130530.4, "trend": 1.078433, "fair_value": 1.028728, "relative_strength": 17.467494, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.50799, "energy": 12.167761, "activity_lines": [ 1.143667, 1.170727, 1.206762, 1.166151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.145, "volume": 69154, "typical_volume": 133180.8, "trend": 1.092267, "fair_value": 1.006708, "relative_strength": 14.370915, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.262458, "energy": 13.022225, "activity_lines": [ 1.136667, 1.162091, 1.199548, 1.170445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 55314, "typical_volume": 124542.1, "trend": 1.1092, "fair_value": 0.985298, "relative_strength": 19.791885, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.043786, "energy": 9.23967, "activity_lines": [ 1.161667, 1.166727, 1.196643, 1.178041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 39651, "typical_volume": 99800.75, "trend": 1.1212, "fair_value": 0.968119, "relative_strength": 6.869688, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.794631, "energy": 5.072709, "activity_lines": [ 1.146333, 1.153545, 1.182405, 1.177447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.08, "volume": 17242, "typical_volume": 79447.4, "trend": 1.134533, "fair_value": 0.953503, "relative_strength": 2.224983, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.539335, "energy": 16.604835, "activity_lines": [ 1.126, 1.138, 1.169119, 1.174789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }