{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2bff0fc-50d1-40bc-b930-c01ed07eab79", "symbol": "EQL", "name": "EQL Pharma AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.207, "architecture_energy": 90.43, "architecture_maturity": 73.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 63.53, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.623333, 21.819091, 26.18619, 32.616559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.0, "trend_reference": 41.055, "distance_from_trend": -0.512849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.796273, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.68151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.690334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.675325, "excess_performance": -0.736819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.512849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.68151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.656903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.675325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.063492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 519358, "relative_activity": 2.044449, "balance": 0.063492, "dry_up": 1.045347, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137423, "annualized_volatility": 0.714799, "from_high_reference": -0.816176, "from_low_reference": 0.150748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.055, "fair_value_reference": 62.796273, "structural_low": 17.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030488, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.084778, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.111913, "worst_return": -0.19739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.288737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.322393, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001805, "worst_return": -0.579279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.57852, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.646825, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.57852, "worst_return": -0.57852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 20.35, "volume": 192545, "typical_volume": 232937.3, "trend": 42.235, "fair_value": 63.188899, "relative_strength": -65.493034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.865064, "energy": 67.872132, "activity_lines": [ 21.26, 22.400909, 27.557857, 34.051075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.0, "volume": 519358, "typical_volume": 254033.25, "trend": 41.055, "fair_value": 62.796273, "relative_strength": -65.690334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.207394, "energy": 90.429944, "activity_lines": [ 20.623333, 21.819091, 26.18619, 32.616559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }