{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2c21499-e54a-41fd-b4d3-859233e31e93", "symbol": "MFIC", "name": "MidCap Financial Investment Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.58, "architecture_energy": 55.093, "architecture_maturity": 20.859, "architecture_confidence": 95.536, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.81, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 10.37, "deceleration": 42.92, "rotation_down": 62.51, "downward_expansion": 86.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.668667, 9.769545, 10.116238, 10.25434 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.76, "trend_reference": 10.391182, "distance_from_trend": -0.060742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.793657, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.44226, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084162, "excess_performance": -0.271615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033676, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095765, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.45166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5254126, "relative_activity": 1.486743, "balance": 0.45166, "dry_up": 0.807547, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052084, "annualized_volatility": 0.300723, "from_high_reference": -0.180048, "from_low_reference": 0.09263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.391182, "fair_value_reference": 10.793657, "structural_low": 8.932576, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024889, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.029333, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.171834, "worst_return": -0.08046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064101, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071179, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.16044, "worst_return": 0.004262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054111, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.002519, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144697, "worst_return": -0.084162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.364278, "energy": 60.493076, "activity_lines": [ 9.935333, 10.092196, 10.428543, 10.469113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.78, "volume": 2018041, "typical_volume": 4156489.85, "trend": 10.510615, "fair_value": 10.792623, "relative_strength": -18.803868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.444177, "energy": 56.516394, "activity_lines": [ 9.871333, 9.998943, 10.363501, 10.419766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.52, "volume": 2008532, "typical_volume": 3903578.25, "trend": 10.467379, "fair_value": 10.792429, "relative_strength": -19.091986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.267811, "energy": 61.011862, "activity_lines": [ 9.746667, 9.88678, 10.270559, 10.355856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.56, "volume": 2134730, "typical_volume": 3625814.6, "trend": 10.426104, "fair_value": 10.792178, "relative_strength": -18.656025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.717491, "energy": 62.217904, "activity_lines": [ 9.662667, 9.803331, 10.182757, 10.297315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.76, "volume": 5254126, "typical_volume": 3533983.7, "trend": 10.391182, "fair_value": 10.793657, "relative_strength": -20.44226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.580355, "energy": 55.093381, "activity_lines": [ 9.668667, 9.769545, 10.116238, 10.25434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }