{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2c2bc8f-8d11-4c4e-b78f-17aa496d1d4d", "symbol": "LEX", "name": "Lexington Gold Ltd", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.393, "architecture_energy": 76.513, "architecture_maturity": 54.875, "architecture_confidence": 78.286, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.17, "rotation_up": 9.82, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 79.18, "downward_expansion": 95.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.028733, 0.029927, 0.031281, 0.032275 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0285, "trend_reference": 0.033967, "distance_from_trend": -0.160942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03901, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.269411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.668969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25974, "excess_performance": -0.310976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093416, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.269411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.977508, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1275764, "relative_activity": 1.334345, "balance": 1.977508, "dry_up": 0.933301, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087341, "annualized_volatility": 0.325342, "from_high_reference": -0.409816, "from_low_reference": 0.017857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.033967, "fair_value_reference": 0.03901, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.005435, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001149, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.350649, "worst_return": -0.164835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.105392, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049959, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.468085, "worst_return": -0.206522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066845, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.404255, "worst_return": -0.043478, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.032967, 0.033965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0285, "volume": 1589768, "typical_volume": 1165529.55, "trend": 0.03525, "fair_value": 0.039574, "relative_strength": -28.228798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.91594, "energy": 62.370997, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.031864, 0.032479, 0.033503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0285, "volume": 259150, "typical_volume": 1003269.1, "trend": 0.034833, "fair_value": 0.039399, "relative_strength": -28.723802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.916752, "energy": 69.704122, "activity_lines": [ 0.0299, 0.031136, 0.032043, 0.033068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0285, "volume": 444627, "typical_volume": 974320.85, "trend": 0.03445, "fair_value": 0.03922, "relative_strength": -29.0345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.754429, "energy": 73.405656, "activity_lines": [ 0.0292, 0.030482, 0.031643, 0.032659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0285, "volume": 1275764, "typical_volume": 956097.9, "trend": 0.033967, "fair_value": 0.03901, "relative_strength": -28.668969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.393431, "energy": 76.512707, "activity_lines": [ 0.028733, 0.029927, 0.031281, 0.032275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }