{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2c349c5-55e5-4222-9b11-a3940f660834", "symbol": "MALUPAPER", "name": "Malu Paper Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.28, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.098, "architecture_energy": 10.43, "architecture_maturity": 17.897, "architecture_confidence": 63.903, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.94, "rotation_up": 44.19, "upward_expansion": 35.78, "deceleration": 44.62, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 20.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.661999, 32.101818, 32.114667, 32.105957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.68, "trend_reference": 32.167667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.294231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.595333, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017734, "excess_performance": 0.025975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0482, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.942167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63476, "relative_activity": 0.584556, "balance": 2.942167, "dry_up": 3.740319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083726, "annualized_volatility": 0.370011, "from_high_reference": -0.282862, "from_low_reference": 0.21037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.167667, "fair_value_reference": 39.294231, "structural_low": 27.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.020495, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.032821, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.207602, "worst_return": -0.124625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006974, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043788, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193012, "worst_return": -0.267696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028529, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.021746, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.598775, "worst_return": -0.22324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016516, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035799, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.546667, "worst_return": -0.154844, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.209169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024954, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083668, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075127, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036281, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024467, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013019, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 34.200001, "volume": 560991, "typical_volume": 179275.2, "trend": 31.988334, "fair_value": 31.874039, "relative_strength": -4.00063, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", 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31.568, 31.950728, 32.083, 32.279635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.1, "volume": 5074, "typical_volume": 37977.35, "trend": 32.683, "fair_value": 39.292436, "relative_strength": -9.778191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.265347, "energy": 45.374342, "activity_lines": [ 31.318, 31.755637, 31.985715, 32.165054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.67, "volume": 43208, "typical_volume": 36709.95, "trend": 32.49, "fair_value": 39.281346, "relative_strength": -10.338976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.523207, "energy": 54.416612, "activity_lines": [ 31.025333, 31.496182, 31.857667, 32.035183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.889999, "volume": 42002, "typical_volume": 35987.55, "trend": 32.337334, "fair_value": 39.26718, "relative_strength": -12.595021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.080363, "energy": 60.684714, "activity_lines": [ 30.577333, 31.128546, 31.661572, 31.867441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.68, "volume": 1240502, "typical_volume": 96706.15, "trend": 32.350667, "fair_value": 39.292692, "relative_strength": 6.991718, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.032315, "energy": 4.696907, "activity_lines": [ 32.208, 31.888364, 32.029476, 32.083097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.259998, "volume": 278641, "typical_volume": 107797.7, "trend": 32.235, "fair_value": 39.294039, "relative_strength": -5.409412, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.53103, "energy": 8.661901, "activity_lines": [ 32.408666, 31.957272, 32.05319, 32.077247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.68, "volume": 63476, "typical_volume": 108588.4, "trend": 32.167667, "fair_value": 39.294231, "relative_strength": -4.595333, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.097876, "energy": 10.430027, "activity_lines": [ 32.661999, 32.101818, 32.114667, 32.105957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }