{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2c4c694-a095-4e93-bf45-245452cfc3f5", "symbol": "IBKR", "name": "Interactive Brokers Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.966, "architecture_energy": 23.738, "architecture_maturity": 48.903, "architecture_confidence": 88.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.1, "rotation_up": 30.54, "upward_expansion": 62.47, "deceleration": 87.65, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 14.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.432, 90.406, 88.133809, 84.324763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.83, "trend_reference": 80.11139, "distance_from_trend": 0.096348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.37508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.815604, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.656337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17999, "excess_performance": -0.007464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096348, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114468, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.815604, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046563, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17999, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29806565, "relative_activity": 1.266213, "balance": 0.968253, "dry_up": 1.034917, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087695, "annualized_volatility": 0.365843, "from_high_reference": -0.10231, "from_low_reference": 0.494932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.11139, "fair_value_reference": 48.37508, "structural_low": 62.959885, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.05557, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.035994, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.187777, "worst_return": -0.113416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042929, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.01239, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.266616, "worst_return": -0.094429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.173481, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.041268, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.504683, "worst_return": -0.106206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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65.640868, "energy": 55.232024, "activity_lines": [ 92.536, 90.360034, 85.062775, 81.443222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.53, "volume": 18416669, "typical_volume": 23231669.5, "trend": 77.973739, "fair_value": 47.082508, "relative_strength": 12.892473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.104797, "energy": 44.796346, "activity_lines": [ 91.909333, 90.713577, 86.081613, 82.310089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.74, "volume": 23000218, "typical_volume": 23039829.05, "trend": 78.831052, "fair_value": 47.533382, "relative_strength": 15.898924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.17501, "energy": 42.352471, "activity_lines": [ 91.704667, 91.174516, 87.123261, 83.198235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.99, "volume": 26224043, "typical_volume": 23328548.0, "trend": 79.527774, "fair_value": 47.956573, "relative_strength": 10.312522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.27303, "energy": 31.61769, "activity_lines": [ 90.534, 90.865896, 87.688214, 83.789135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.83, "volume": 29806565, "typical_volume": 23539929.7, "trend": 80.11139, "fair_value": 48.37508, "relative_strength": 4.656337, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.965948, "energy": 23.738307, "activity_lines": [ 89.432, 90.406, 88.133809, 84.324763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }