{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2c9aa24-30f5-42a4-a2e9-6a3b502f1ad1", "symbol": "GPSI34", "name": "The Gap, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.485, "architecture_energy": 46.582, "architecture_maturity": 89.911, "architecture_confidence": 74.041, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.4, "rotation_up": 28.82, "upward_expansion": 12.72, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 43.11, "downward_expansion": 74.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.317999, 102.657679, 107.261354, 112.692308 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 102.0, "trend_reference": 121.002005, "distance_from_trend": -0.157039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 114.325035, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107807, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.702087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315204, "excess_performance": -0.258156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107807, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.043624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.043624, "dry_up": 1.550345, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067486, "annualized_volatility": 0.542976, "from_high_reference": -0.323329, "from_low_reference": 0.139047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.002005, "fair_value_reference": 114.325035, "structural_low": 89.548515, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001916, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.020499, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.402391, "worst_return": -0.340512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016055, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.11293, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.650709, "worst_return": -0.293523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016013, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.405293, "worst_return": -0.426939, 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117.144504, 122.631176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 89.548515, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 807.1, "trend": 127.728464, "fair_value": 112.52238, "relative_strength": -33.237533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.177761, "energy": 73.43361, "activity_lines": [ 103.800159, 107.093185, 114.014685, 120.063529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 98.690002, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 666.05, "trend": 126.33269, "fair_value": 112.87793, "relative_strength": -27.286175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.58782, "energy": 68.464299, "activity_lines": [ 101.426522, 104.904739, 111.998117, 118.19008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.489998, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 547.5, "trend": 125.163892, "fair_value": 113.28348, "relative_strength": -19.222847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.071588, "energy": 64.441488, "activity_lines": [ 102.09982, 104.606655, 110.941039, 116.909906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.699997, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 132.9, "trend": 123.529295, "fair_value": 113.642867, "relative_strength": -22.48803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.879866, "energy": 63.227369, "activity_lines": [ 101.43384, 103.768027, 109.604561, 115.396106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.0, "volume": 1010, "typical_volume": 183.15, "trend": 122.379584, "fair_value": 113.982744, "relative_strength": -23.499175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.858526, "energy": 54.203421, "activity_lines": [ 101.546567, 103.094671, 108.389974, 114.007119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 181.25, "trend": 121.002005, "fair_value": 114.325035, "relative_strength": -20.702087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.485109, "energy": 46.582047, "activity_lines": [ 102.317999, 102.657679, 107.261354, 112.692308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }