{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2d3b5ef-e104-4683-bc45-b5629162f75e", "symbol": "CENX", "name": "Century Aluminum Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.656, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.462, "architecture_energy": 37.233, "architecture_maturity": 24.747, "architecture_confidence": 71.663, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.25, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 4.52, "deceleration": 57.64, "rotation_down": 50.2, "downward_expansion": 75.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.768667, 47.003273, 51.877952, 53.112903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.23, "trend_reference": 53.367333, "distance_from_trend": -0.040049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.613654, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.081365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.742111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022328, "excess_performance": -0.209782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.081365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.72608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037421, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.37346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13111178, "relative_activity": 1.348509, "balance": 0.750402, "dry_up": 1.004124, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149516, "annualized_volatility": 0.668616, "from_high_reference": -0.272611, "from_low_reference": 1.450024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.367333, "fair_value_reference": 24.613654, "structural_low": 40.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001464, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002117, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.147139, "worst_return": -0.353464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099455, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.65593, "worst_return": -0.242377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.215987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.532943, "worst_return": -0.258796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007382, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.208208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.414136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139887, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146855, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.1, "volume": 6164988, "typical_volume": 5758297.9, "trend": 9.2205, "fair_value": 12.022853, "relative_strength": -19.333478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.619156, "energy": 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-32.90432, "energy": 58.149533, "activity_lines": [ 46.799333, 52.226727, 55.540714, 54.923183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.5, "volume": 8410136, "typical_volume": 10117738.65, "trend": 52.854, "fair_value": 23.870032, "relative_strength": -10.455513, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.076924, "energy": 70.418944, "activity_lines": [ 44.122, 49.689818, 54.137762, 54.202043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.21, "volume": 9968928, "typical_volume": 9959367.7, "trend": 53.055, "fair_value": 24.108045, "relative_strength": 0.542862, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.118137, "energy": 63.118678, "activity_lines": [ 44.327333, 48.325818, 53.231286, 53.773398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.77, "volume": 7561047, "typical_volume": 9728392.15, "trend": 53.182667, "fair_value": 24.336987, "relative_strength": -3.892498, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.306118, "energy": 50.384453, "activity_lines": [ 44.419333, 46.892909, 52.223286, 53.238882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.23, "volume": 13111178, "typical_volume": 9722724.2, "trend": 53.367333, "fair_value": 24.613654, "relative_strength": 3.742111, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.461608, "energy": 37.233485, "activity_lines": [ 46.768667, 47.003273, 51.877952, 53.112903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }