{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d2dec3aa-fd66-48fc-9843-53a8df6436c1",
    "symbol": "PHYS",
    "name": "Sprott Physical Gold Trust",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 75.026,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -51.365,
    "architecture_energy": 42.086,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.145,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.778,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.38,
        "rotation_up": 25.95,
        "upward_expansion": 17.94,
        "deceleration": 66.42,
        "rotation_down": 49.08,
        "downward_expansion": 72.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        31.349333,
        31.214182,
        32.262048,
        33.317247
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 32.87,
    "trend_reference": 34.657,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.051562,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 24.018333,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368538,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.94412,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.119003,
    "excess_performance": -0.244628,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051562,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011391,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.368538,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.214621,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109441,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.132249,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.119003,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.739556,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 34090237,
      "relative_activity": 1.829091,
      "balance": 0.739556,
      "dry_up": 1.070891,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046923,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.260387,
      "from_high_reference": -0.218683,
      "from_low_reference": 0.293076
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.657,
      "fair_value_reference": 24.018333,
      "structural_low": 29.765,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.014766,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02056,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.102473,
        "worst_return": -0.044787,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.073056,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009776,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.169279,
        "worst_return": -0.05271,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.12527,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.096822,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.272792,
        "worst_return": 0.107647,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.173879,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02199,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.383378,
        "worst_return": -0.084953,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-09-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045969,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-10-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.084099,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003861,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.072923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.061419,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -11.86975,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 20882682.05,
        "trend": 35.022667,
        "fair_value": 23.608974,
        "relative_strength": -13.977477,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.656343,
        "energy": 83.13128,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 30.31,
        "volume": 13399859,
        "typical_volume": 20537397.1,
        "trend": 34.929333,
        "fair_value": 23.705256,
        "relative_strength": -14.526991,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -75.378969,
        "energy": 82.332629,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.792667,
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          32.927238,
          33.983742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 30.64,
        "volume": 14810383,
        "typical_volume": 19459069.55,
        "trend": 34.793,
        "fair_value": 23.80391,
        "relative_strength": -13.115975,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.49078,
        "energy": 66.681677,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.682,
          31.187273,
          32.59719,
          33.707011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.59,
        "volume": 17535768,
        "typical_volume": 19297997.95,
        "trend": 34.708333,
        "fair_value": 23.903269,
        "relative_strength": -14.171323,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.943374,
        "energy": 59.028502,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.633333,
          30.961455,
          32.30319,
          33.435849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.87,
        "volume": 34090237,
        "typical_volume": 18637802.8,
        "trend": 34.657,
        "fair_value": 24.018333,
        "relative_strength": -10.94412,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.365236,
        "energy": 42.085577,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.349333,
          31.214182,
          32.262048,
          33.317247
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}