{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2e672c5-806d-4fc0-8590-495ca88889d3", "symbol": "HGV", "name": "Hilton Grand Vacations Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 93.758, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.586, "architecture_energy": 18.559, "architecture_maturity": 65.594, "architecture_confidence": 75.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.88, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 53.68, "deceleration": 90.02, "rotation_down": 41.86, "downward_expansion": 22.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.322, 49.234182, 49.230143, 48.085484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.66, "trend_reference": 46.981333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.211474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.766644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041562, "excess_performance": -0.167187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6286470, "relative_activity": 1.220382, "balance": 0.622529, "dry_up": 1.143851, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097158, "annualized_volatility": 0.395325, "from_high_reference": -0.175812, "from_low_reference": 0.241098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.981333, "fair_value_reference": 42.211474, "structural_low": 37.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.02443, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.026475, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.063731, "worst_return": -0.182584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046809, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.039157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157028, "worst_return": -0.084201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039092, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024349, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.055048, "worst_return": -0.145136, 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"fair_value": 42.200705, "relative_strength": -0.618296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.702227, "energy": 20.526249, "activity_lines": [ 50.398667, 51.066727, 49.555762, 48.234409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.14, "volume": 7312749, "typical_volume": 5017410.35, "trend": 47.065, "fair_value": 42.211667, "relative_strength": -6.940806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.730647, "energy": 16.949827, "activity_lines": [ 48.655333, 50.173455, 49.428333, 48.176129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.66, "volume": 6286470, "typical_volume": 5151231.85, "trend": 46.981333, "fair_value": 42.211474, "relative_strength": -10.766644, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.585748, "energy": 18.558636, "activity_lines": [ 47.322, 49.234182, 49.230143, 48.085484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }