{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2ed2cfe-3c30-434f-904a-3fa2d349003a", "symbol": "LIAN", "name": "Li Auto Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.865, "architecture_energy": 67.434, "architecture_maturity": 89.254, "architecture_confidence": 92.029, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.89, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.54, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 217.866667, 219.421272, 242.029142, 259.972687 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 222.600006, "trend_reference": 278.941998, "distance_from_trend": -0.201985, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 437.911438, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.491678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.648293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315603, "excess_performance": -0.260937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.491678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.16184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 635, "relative_activity": 5.504985, "balance": 1.16184, "dry_up": 1.47811, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041879, "annualized_volatility": 0.271731, "from_high_reference": -0.543852, "from_low_reference": 0.05298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 278.941998, "fair_value_reference": 437.911438, "structural_low": 211.399994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.068627, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.077796, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.128571, "worst_return": -0.157574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.116589, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158251, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.020408, "worst_return": -0.238792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.200411, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.303275, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.176597, "worst_return": -0.224224, "sufficient": false }, 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277.863116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 213.0, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 137.55, "trend": 287.900665, "fair_value": 442.516223, "relative_strength": -39.956781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.368159, "energy": 92.009778, "activity_lines": [ 216.003998, 228.331089, 257.869522, 272.830815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 213.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 135.45, "trend": 284.896331, "fair_value": 440.92236, "relative_strength": -38.316575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.647789, "energy": 89.885081, "activity_lines": [ 213.628665, 222.883271, 251.639761, 267.998514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 219.649994, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 118.65, "trend": 281.753997, "fair_value": 439.396344, "relative_strength": -35.69155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.523236, "energy": 80.878376, "activity_lines": [ 214.936664, 220.371816, 246.479332, 263.789073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.600006, "volume": 635, "typical_volume": 115.35, "trend": 278.941998, "fair_value": 437.911438, "relative_strength": -33.648293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.865415, "energy": 67.43364, "activity_lines": [ 217.866667, 219.421272, 242.029142, 259.972687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }