{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2ed4728-e063-4c9e-bc9e-e2d6550efdb1", "symbol": "AGRH", "name": "ISHARES US ETF TRUST INTEREST RATE HEDGED US AGGREGATE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.937, "architecture_energy": 29.308, "architecture_maturity": 32.489, "architecture_confidence": 42.094, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.31, "rotation_up": 37.24, "upward_expansion": 71.66, "deceleration": 72.95, "rotation_down": 25.3, "downward_expansion": 3.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.179702, 26.178924, 26.156835, 26.1038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.23, "trend_reference": 26.039372, "distance_from_trend": 0.007321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.450371, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.466841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012164, "excess_performance": -0.11346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006635, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.967866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5207, "relative_activity": 0.797726, "balance": 0.967866, "dry_up": 0.81366, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005268, "annualized_volatility": 0.014497, "from_high_reference": -0.005009, "from_low_reference": 0.047927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.039372, "fair_value_reference": 24.450371, "structural_low": 25.784282, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.009672, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009672, "worst_return": 0.009672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.015816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015816, "worst_return": 0.015816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003157, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00359, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.41551, "volume": 106, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 22.432988, "volume": 441, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 22.446096, "volume": 238, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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"fair_value": 24.377282, "relative_strength": -6.833386, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.880474, "energy": 28.359248, "activity_lines": [ 26.164974, 26.177324, 26.126816, 26.072136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.136182, "volume": 4689, "typical_volume": 6163.35, "trend": 26.015337, "fair_value": 24.401258, "relative_strength": -6.150633, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.619374, "energy": 19.21946, "activity_lines": [ 26.149844, 26.171137, 26.134218, 26.080696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.17097, "volume": 5061, "typical_volume": 6409.9, "trend": 26.027525, "fair_value": 24.425611, "relative_strength": -6.776956, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.328882, "energy": 19.456774, "activity_lines": [ 26.152722, 26.17002, 26.143636, 26.090737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.23, "volume": 5207, "typical_volume": 6527.3, "trend": 26.039372, "fair_value": 24.450371, "relative_strength": -9.466841, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.93676, "energy": 29.307726, "activity_lines": [ 26.179702, 26.178924, 26.156835, 26.1038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }