{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2f394cb-cfb8-4022-b811-76d4f18b0b57", "symbol": "600202", "name": "Harbin Air Conditioning Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.454, "architecture_energy": 53.402, "architecture_maturity": 60.356, "architecture_confidence": 93.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 25.02, "upward_expansion": 8.92, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 53.98, "downward_expansion": 82.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.598667, 4.631273, 5.042619, 5.32172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.83, "trend_reference": 5.637333, "distance_from_trend": -0.143212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.220645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.074004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213355, "excess_performance": -0.170151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074827, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37608701, "relative_activity": 1.000843, "balance": 0.229641, "dry_up": 1.040978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091575, "annualized_volatility": 0.366442, "from_high_reference": -0.275862, "from_low_reference": 0.175182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.637333, "fair_value_reference": 5.220645, "structural_low": 4.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035753, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.016822, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.233333, "worst_return": -0.237219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057278, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.021159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.422225, "worst_return": -0.266234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062257, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.00131, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.431096, "worst_return": -0.244989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 5.714333, "fair_value": 5.23489, "relative_strength": -24.53638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.789698, "energy": 80.5048, "activity_lines": [ 4.465333, 4.679091, 5.181333, 5.446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.63, "volume": 35970201, "typical_volume": 38168617.05, "trend": 5.672, "fair_value": 5.225817, "relative_strength": -17.747811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.139498, "energy": 62.240841, "activity_lines": [ 4.502, 4.623818, 5.098095, 5.376043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.83, "volume": 37608701, "typical_volume": 37577008.1, "trend": 5.637333, "fair_value": 5.220645, "relative_strength": -16.074004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.453564, "energy": 53.402167, "activity_lines": [ 4.598667, 4.631273, 5.042619, 5.32172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }