{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2f9887d-2f77-4fa2-abcf-4f701468909f", "symbol": "SONO", "name": "Sonos, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.473, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.722, "architecture_energy": 33.177, "architecture_maturity": 28.528, "architecture_confidence": 60.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.55, "rotation_up": 55.5, "upward_expansion": 73.17, "deceleration": 60.03, "rotation_down": 16.38, "downward_expansion": 4.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.049333, 12.855273, 12.823381, 12.688667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.605, "trend_reference": 12.6575, "distance_from_trend": 0.074857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.790936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063644, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.99322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037155, "excess_performance": -0.211402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074857, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05514, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091293, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.587917, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765, "relative_activity": 1.445032, "balance": 1.587917, "dry_up": 1.68776, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066548, "annualized_volatility": 0.318262, "from_high_reference": -0.184597, "from_low_reference": 0.399979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.6575, "fair_value_reference": 12.790936, "structural_low": 10.885, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020002, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009658, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.312287, "worst_return": -0.155614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118889, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.600782, "worst_return": -0.203144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.246222, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.262748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563315, "worst_return": -0.409877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.162162, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.257018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082127, "worst_return": -0.48432, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048252, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.268029, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.368912, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098855, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188252, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015201, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.79, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.9, "trend": 16.365733, "fair_value": 21.544064, "relative_strength": -20.097808, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.710758, "energy": 28.407343, "activity_lines": [ 13.234, 13.088636, 12.670143, 12.800688 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.0, "volume": 1685, "typical_volume": 147.7, "trend": 13.1605, "fair_value": 12.863596, "relative_strength": -24.215593, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.441543, "energy": 17.988382, "activity_lines": [ 12.798, 12.922182, 12.612333, 12.717151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.275, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 147.7, "trend": 13.029333, "fair_value": 12.84725, "relative_strength": -24.204714, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.161414, "energy": 27.847604, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.811818, 12.590857, 12.660022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.525, "volume": 5279, "typical_volume": 351.4, "trend": 12.922333, "fair_value": 12.829846, "relative_strength": -21.619806, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.609452, "energy": 30.496504, "activity_lines": [ 12.441333, 12.749909, 12.597786, 12.627484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.09, "volume": 422, "typical_volume": 372.5, "trend": 12.8395, "fair_value": 12.819429, "relative_strength": -16.563297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.610412, "energy": 17.521209, "activity_lines": [ 12.611, 12.792, 12.661357, 12.638301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.83, "volume": 1517, "typical_volume": 447.65, "trend": 12.761, "fair_value": 12.80084, "relative_strength": -19.326552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.409691, "energy": 4.77913, "activity_lines": [ 12.709, 12.777182, 12.699381, 12.637688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.63, "volume": 870, "typical_volume": 491.15, "trend": 12.683833, "fair_value": 12.786417, "relative_strength": -20.582914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.985813, "energy": 6.671327, "activity_lines": [ 12.737667, 12.723364, 12.716833, 12.629237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.605, "volume": 765, "typical_volume": 529.4, "trend": 12.6575, "fair_value": 12.790936, "relative_strength": -16.99322, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.721914, "energy": 33.177031, "activity_lines": [ 13.049333, 12.855273, 12.823381, 12.688667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }