{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d302e92e-0d9f-411a-8823-7efba73d07cd", "symbol": "BMY", "name": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.096, "architecture_energy": 80.045, "architecture_maturity": 12.584, "architecture_confidence": 75.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.66, "rotation_up": 83.38, "upward_expansion": 95.1, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.19, "downward_expansion": 17.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.344667, 60.919767, 59.234026, 58.91606 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 64.72, "trend_reference": 58.448383, "distance_from_trend": 0.107302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.388374, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31043, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.875474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055075, "excess_performance": -0.07055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078755, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.510486, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87147337, "relative_activity": 1.560115, "balance": 1.510486, "dry_up": 1.169484, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051446, "annualized_volatility": 0.22356, "from_high_reference": -0.049633, "from_low_reference": 0.556324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.448383, "fair_value_reference": 49.388374, "structural_low": 52.867039, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.011462, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.004351, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.109739, "worst_return": -0.192985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.057065, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.058761, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.14055, "worst_return": -0.159828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006886, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102613, "worst_return": -0.164787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"mixed", "direction": -4.535586, "energy": 6.145122, "activity_lines": [ 56.965962, 56.756349, 57.210774, 57.470807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.74, "volume": 61058930, "typical_volume": 57438293.25, "trend": 57.431558, "fair_value": 49.187485, "relative_strength": 6.411625, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.216849, "energy": 31.231478, "activity_lines": [ 58.375842, 57.499186, 57.491321, 57.700903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.09, "volume": 44418806, "typical_volume": 56231326.9, "trend": 57.719934, "fair_value": 49.239884, "relative_strength": 9.148724, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.615286, "energy": 49.586364, "activity_lines": [ 59.95422, 58.393257, 57.905094, 58.001447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.31, "volume": 68682388, "typical_volume": 57198801.2, "trend": 58.133574, "fair_value": 49.318102, "relative_strength": 13.055232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.877231, "energy": 78.536074, "activity_lines": [ 62.028, 59.769126, 58.61396, 58.491129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.72, "volume": 87147337, "typical_volume": 55859557.85, "trend": 58.448383, "fair_value": 49.388374, "relative_strength": 7.875474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.096102, "energy": 80.045018, "activity_lines": [ 63.344667, 60.919767, 59.234026, 58.91606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }