{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3030161-1c46-40e4-a06e-321843e9fb73", "symbol": "HBM", "name": "Hudbay Minerals Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.615, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.157, "architecture_energy": 18.76, "architecture_maturity": 25.406, "architecture_confidence": 95.365, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.2, "rotation_up": 32.5, "upward_expansion": 47.61, "deceleration": 85.22, "rotation_down": 30.45, "downward_expansion": 27.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.453333, 33.330146, 33.961567, 33.523417 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.43, "trend_reference": 33.199789, "distance_from_trend": 0.157537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.403352, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.342814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.312058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137691, "excess_performance": 0.01727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098078, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.342814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.213121, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.632844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10419700, "relative_activity": 1.232624, "balance": 1.632844, "dry_up": 1.425748, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11515, "annualized_volatility": 0.782275, "from_high_reference": -0.046376, "from_low_reference": 1.998124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.199789, "fair_value_reference": 16.403352, "structural_low": 24.040001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041451, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037134, "worst_return": -0.108783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.15399, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.061308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316367, "worst_return": -0.379534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085141, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.759551, "worst_return": -0.115054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11283, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.228679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.273831, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01554, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 31.287334, 33.569835, 33.643218, 33.300739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.540001, "volume": 11264500, "typical_volume": 8465780.0, "trend": 32.777828, "fair_value": 16.047124, "relative_strength": 4.77138, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.488111, "energy": 27.518093, "activity_lines": [ 30.85, 33.010777, 33.531445, 33.230274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.809999, "volume": 12658800, "typical_volume": 8597410.0, "trend": 32.918462, "fair_value": 16.203096, "relative_strength": 5.051735, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.152691, "energy": 29.072255, "activity_lines": [ 31.007333, 32.551727, 33.43934, 33.167834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.43, "volume": 10419700, "typical_volume": 8453265.0, "trend": 33.199789, "fair_value": 16.403352, "relative_strength": 21.312058, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.157208, "energy": 18.759849, "activity_lines": [ 33.453333, 33.330146, 33.961567, 33.523417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }