{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d305cceb-292b-4d40-9457-7a556100ddc6", "symbol": "V20A", "name": "Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Accumulating", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.948, "architecture_energy": 25.546, "architecture_maturity": 57.525, "architecture_confidence": 74.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.38, "rotation_up": 27.36, "upward_expansion": 57.34, "deceleration": 88.07, "rotation_down": 34.59, "downward_expansion": 21.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.987333, 26.043091, 26.000405, 25.91057 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.115, "trend_reference": 25.822167, "distance_from_trend": 0.01134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.380994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.822179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017335, "excess_performance": -0.047304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058222, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3508, "relative_activity": 0.546698, "balance": 0.655046, "dry_up": 1.332266, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007541, "annualized_volatility": 0.048489, "from_high_reference": -0.008166, "from_low_reference": 0.050694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.822167, "fair_value_reference": 24.380994, "structural_low": 25.014999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013896, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005876, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.017065, "worst_return": 0.005886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011849, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028269, "worst_return": -0.003924, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028056, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054381, "worst_return": -0.005107, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 6562.85, "trend": 25.781667, "fair_value": 24.311314, "relative_strength": -0.707952, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.409267, "energy": 54.18083, "activity_lines": [ 26.118, 26.101818, 25.963619, 25.879312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.924999, "volume": 5142, "typical_volume": 6312.9, "trend": 25.796167, "fair_value": 24.333301, "relative_strength": -2.126087, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.118022, "energy": 28.395101, "activity_lines": [ 26.044333, 26.078, 25.974048, 25.888559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.83, "volume": 17742, "typical_volume": 6773.3, "trend": 25.807667, "fair_value": 24.35609, "relative_strength": -4.409975, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.088227, "energy": 21.459532, "activity_lines": [ 25.954333, 26.034091, 25.974595, 25.890742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.115, "volume": 3508, "typical_volume": 6416.7, "trend": 25.822167, "fair_value": 24.380994, "relative_strength": -5.822179, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.948337, "energy": 25.545691, "activity_lines": [ 25.987333, 26.043091, 26.000405, 25.91057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }