{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3062802-a7b5-4323-815c-0616524840f6", "symbol": "UGROCAP", "name": "UGRO Capital Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.354, "architecture_energy": 41.792, "architecture_maturity": 75.308, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.14, "rotation_up": 22.6, "upward_expansion": 4.75, "deceleration": 50.39, "rotation_down": 52.87, "downward_expansion": 78.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.132, 96.038909, 97.702952, 99.917613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 95.080002, "trend_reference": 107.59, "distance_from_trend": -0.116275, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 204.169464, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.534308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.017965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.358261, "excess_performance": -0.314552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191432, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.534308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.20056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8404951, "relative_activity": 4.242276, "balance": 0.20056, "dry_up": 1.275497, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057757, "annualized_volatility": 0.486253, "from_high_reference": -0.506078, "from_low_reference": 0.18672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.59, "fair_value_reference": 204.169464, "structural_low": 80.120003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002854, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.13263, "worst_return": -0.333925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.083399, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084967, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.235714, "worst_return": -0.336992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.177903, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.172915, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.141652, "worst_return": -0.401238, "sufficient": false }, 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"direction": -47.454939, "energy": 36.997758, "activity_lines": [ 97.664002, 97.451092, 98.855429, 103.438108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.769997, "volume": 592912, "typical_volume": 2710898.4, "trend": 112.648334, "fair_value": 206.609977, "relative_strength": -29.867751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.921811, "energy": 49.261379, "activity_lines": [ 95.898667, 96.581091, 98.280238, 101.986151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.449997, "volume": 437378, "typical_volume": 2504901.2, "trend": 109.944, "fair_value": 205.462541, "relative_strength": -28.930161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.538877, "energy": 46.29599, "activity_lines": [ 95.490666, 96.304364, 98.021952, 100.876581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.080002, "volume": 8404951, "typical_volume": 1981236.2, "trend": 107.59, "fair_value": 204.169464, "relative_strength": -29.017965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.353824, "energy": 41.791913, "activity_lines": [ 95.132, 96.038909, 97.702952, 99.917613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }