{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d308d570-d0d2-4bf6-9d50-b038ce283e6f", "symbol": "EPIGRAL", "name": "Epigral Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.636, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.972, "architecture_energy": 16.36, "architecture_maturity": 17.557, "architecture_confidence": 56.707, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.84, "rotation_up": 38.4, "upward_expansion": 57.74, "deceleration": 68.51, "rotation_down": 19.15, "downward_expansion": 17.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1095.166642, 1084.447252, 1116.321029, 1091.345442 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1101.199951, "trend_reference": 1063.924382, "distance_from_trend": 0.035036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1439.082422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.669217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110192, "excess_performance": 0.153902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08901, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23479, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110192, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230007, "relative_activity": 0.611596, "balance": 1.382971, "dry_up": 2.088466, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082894, "annualized_volatility": 0.481554, "from_high_reference": -0.423938, "from_low_reference": 0.370463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1063.924382, "fair_value_reference": 1439.082422, "structural_low": 803.524198, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.036775, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.034742, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.038701, "worst_return": -0.091501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078224, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.141721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.301214, "worst_return": -0.22993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.146663, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.240667, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.481311, "worst_return": -0.494335, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.524425, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011635, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.126836, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", 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-40.786503, "energy": 36.886418, "activity_lines": [ 1044.233309, 1096.889817, 1109.483065, 1084.176255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1051.900024, "volume": 872571, "typical_volume": 313731.05, "trend": 1073.591052, "fair_value": 1435.29767, "relative_strength": -19.444977, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.652524, "energy": 33.667144, "activity_lines": [ 1038.313322, 1080.028793, 1108.057679, 1082.051673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1162.699951, "volume": 1100575, "typical_volume": 354296.55, "trend": 1069.757719, "fair_value": 1436.866091, "relative_strength": -7.996107, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.98024, "energy": 21.323791, "activity_lines": [ 1073.553312, 1088.212922, 1116.422286, 1087.800634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1088.0, "volume": 938543, "typical_volume": 383275.9, "trend": 1064.497717, "fair_value": 1437.789167, "relative_strength": -15.006157, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.952324, "energy": 11.36308, "activity_lines": [ 1081.55332, 1083.696351, 1116.258565, 1088.977556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1101.199951, "volume": 230007, "typical_volume": 376076.9, "trend": 1063.924382, "fair_value": 1439.082422, "relative_strength": -13.669217, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.971615, "energy": 16.359663, "activity_lines": [ 1095.166642, 1084.447252, 1116.321029, 1091.345442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }