{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3107257-6075-4fa0-8eb9-de3399e1d93f", "symbol": "LIBAS", "name": "Libas Consumer Products Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.17, "architecture_energy": 65.125, "architecture_maturity": 14.888, "architecture_confidence": 84.848, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.89, "rotation_up": 14.33, "upward_expansion": 28.79, "deceleration": 49.14, "rotation_down": 77.24, "downward_expansion": 60.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.098, 10.581273, 11.176952, 11.134581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.78, "trend_reference": 11.002333, "distance_from_trend": -0.111098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.672308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.141453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153979, "excess_performance": -0.11027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143661, "relative_activity": 0.944507, "balance": 0.428472, "dry_up": 0.897616, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084238, "annualized_volatility": 0.29434, "from_high_reference": -0.316084, "from_low_reference": 0.084257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.002333, "fair_value_reference": 14.672308, "structural_low": 9.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028668, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019518, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069378, "worst_return": -0.358919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.207857, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.220767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.062201, "worst_return": -0.353514, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.337909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.309991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.185008, "worst_return": -0.490811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051488, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025896, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.85, "volume": 3447935, "typical_volume": 879682.6, "trend": 13.24, "fair_value": 26.548118, "relative_strength": -23.08637, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.81758, "energy": 8.304275, "activity_lines": [ 13.683333, 13.748182, 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"typical_volume": 168793.8, "trend": 11.068, "fair_value": 14.719744, "relative_strength": -8.411762, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.123738, "energy": 57.566603, "activity_lines": [ 10.612667, 11.115273, 11.447905, 11.279914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.07, "volume": 160414, "typical_volume": 160701.55, "trend": 11.034667, "fair_value": 14.697115, "relative_strength": -10.089293, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.964372, "energy": 61.834132, "activity_lines": [ 10.351333, 10.853091, 11.325667, 11.215527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.78, "volume": 143661, "typical_volume": 152101.5, "trend": 11.002333, "fair_value": 14.672308, "relative_strength": -13.141453, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.170115, "energy": 65.125397, "activity_lines": [ 10.098, 10.581273, 11.176952, 11.134581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }