{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d310818a-5435-473b-a446-68fffdc1f482", "symbol": "NIM", "name": "Nuveen Select Maturities Municipal Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.151, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.485, "architecture_energy": 7.839, "architecture_maturity": 18.987, "architecture_confidence": 55.734, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.08, "rotation_up": 28.86, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 28.28, "rotation_down": 28.74, "downward_expansion": 56.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.322412, 9.325864, 9.30078, 9.331906 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.365, "trend_reference": 9.362363, "distance_from_trend": 0.000282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.660904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081296, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.74288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010478, "excess_performance": -0.136103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000367, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.468149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82427, "relative_activity": 1.007941, "balance": 1.468149, "dry_up": 1.055485, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018552, "annualized_volatility": 0.085161, "from_high_reference": -0.049004, "from_low_reference": 0.071061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.362363, "fair_value_reference": 8.660904, "structural_low": 9.094634, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.006382, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.018684, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.045493, "worst_return": -0.068646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078661, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.036245, "worst_return": -0.066224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017154, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.101661, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060154, "worst_return": -0.080916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182753, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.071278, "worst_return": -0.115695, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012587, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017297, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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80840.3, "trend": 9.34591, "fair_value": 8.636372, "relative_strength": -6.35563, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.312818, "energy": 21.34491, "activity_lines": [ 9.377555, 9.321893, 9.309969, 9.3419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.38, "volume": 97373, "typical_volume": 82308.75, "trend": 9.356186, "fair_value": 8.644669, "relative_strength": -5.931709, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.13447, "energy": 19.550255, "activity_lines": [ 9.387179, 9.340153, 9.312621, 9.344099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.16, "volume": 64170, "typical_volume": 81566.1, "trend": 9.35782, "fair_value": 8.651842, "relative_strength": -8.864343, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.221963, "energy": 15.343548, "activity_lines": [ 9.314915, 9.314076, 9.295702, 9.331442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.365, "volume": 82427, "typical_volume": 81777.6, "trend": 9.362363, "fair_value": 8.660904, "relative_strength": -9.74288, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.484693, "energy": 7.839459, "activity_lines": [ 9.322412, 9.325864, 9.30078, 9.331906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }