{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d314786c-a04c-4ac7-bfba-337ca2a00e30", "symbol": "M3M", "name": "M3 Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.062, "architecture_energy": 56.953, "architecture_maturity": 26.889, "architecture_confidence": 75.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.45, "rotation_up": 14.77, "upward_expansion": 14.87, "deceleration": 34.3, "rotation_down": 69.08, "downward_expansion": 83.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.024467, 0.025127, 0.025476, 0.0258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.027, "distance_from_trend": -0.111111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.043696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450745, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.126089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.263706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450745, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065333, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105306, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.365686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26740, "relative_activity": 0.11717, "balance": 2.365686, "dry_up": 0.408821, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080128, "annualized_volatility": 0.518524, "from_high_reference": -0.489362, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027, "fair_value_reference": 0.043696, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.136207, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095626, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.157819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035714, "worst_return": -0.351351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.348837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.15, "volume": 824683, "typical_volume": 1180963.65, "trend": 0.121133, "fair_value": 0.164149, "relative_strength": 19.685626, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.849596, "energy": 23.805416, "activity_lines": [ 0.157667, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 0.025, "volume": 43836, "typical_volume": 299957.4, "trend": 0.027567, "fair_value": 0.049317, "relative_strength": -14.755811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.237026, "energy": 31.243318, "activity_lines": [ 0.025333, 0.025873, 0.025657, 0.026555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.027, "volume": 382336, "typical_volume": 288845.6, "trend": 0.027567, "fair_value": 0.048304, "relative_strength": -8.78713, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.685294, "energy": 31.342333, "activity_lines": [ 0.025667, 0.026073, 0.025738, 0.026518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.029, "volume": 295371, "typical_volume": 296283.85, "trend": 0.027567, "fair_value": 0.047337, "relative_strength": -1.948533, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.195553, "energy": 6.834794, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.026582, 0.026019, 0.026611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.025, "volume": 250000, "typical_volume": 268426.3, "trend": 0.027467, "fair_value": 0.046311, "relative_strength": -15.377301, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.171196, "energy": 14.800823, "activity_lines": [ 0.0264, 0.026309, 0.025924, 0.026445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 96458, "typical_volume": 253748.5, "trend": 0.027367, "fair_value": 0.045375, "relative_strength": -18.35887, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.064302, "energy": 19.918182, "activity_lines": [ 0.025733, 0.025873, 0.025752, 0.026222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 231128.75, "trend": 0.027167, "fair_value": 0.044567, "relative_strength": -20.015163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.087199, "energy": 32.750093, "activity_lines": [ 0.025067, 0.025473, 0.025605, 0.026004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 26740, "typical_volume": 228215.75, "trend": 0.027, "fair_value": 0.043696, "relative_strength": -22.126089, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.061932, "energy": 56.952739, "activity_lines": [ 0.024467, 0.025127, 0.025476, 0.0258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }