{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d3184cdd-62da-492e-a0be-119312193cf8", "symbol": "LYNRJ", "name": "Amundi MSCI New Energy UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.263, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.129, "architecture_energy": 22.692, "architecture_maturity": 64.226, "architecture_confidence": 79.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.68, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 44.67, "deceleration": 85.08, "rotation_down": 42.55, "downward_expansion": 34.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.500333, 40.280545, 40.654524, 39.80086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.889999, "trend_reference": 38.343833, "distance_from_trend": 0.040324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.181889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415448, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.322278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.182101, "excess_performance": 0.099218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040324, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094744, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415448, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043223, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.119496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 682, "relative_activity": 0.16836, "balance": 0.119496, "dry_up": 2.144303, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041084, "annualized_volatility": 0.24623, "from_high_reference": -0.086035, "from_low_reference": 0.511299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.343833, "fair_value_reference": 28.181889, "structural_low": 33.349998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0016, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.027201, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.140218, "worst_return": -0.072526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024017, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186398, "worst_return": -0.048652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021374, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.052828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330771, "worst_return": -0.046788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": 65.192391, "energy": 62.309174, "activity_lines": [ 42.338333, 42.053545, 40.688095, 39.160828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.154999, "volume": 7146, "typical_volume": 2747.75, "trend": 37.258666, "fair_value": 27.983052, "relative_strength": 8.990479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.868386, "energy": 50.247349, "activity_lines": [ 41.693333, 41.763091, 40.775857, 39.367161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.665001, "volume": 3555, "typical_volume": 2807.55, "trend": 37.521333, "fair_value": 28.018964, "relative_strength": 3.716658, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.73543, "energy": 20.46626, "activity_lines": [ 40.634667, 41.212364, 40.701905, 39.457892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.869999, "volume": 1764, "typical_volume": 2657.85, "trend": 37.824166, "fair_value": 28.068698, "relative_strength": 6.615501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.233314, "energy": 28.581097, "activity_lines": [ 40.109, 40.924909, 40.734238, 39.609419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.990002, "volume": 28744, "typical_volume": 4022.25, "trend": 38.0885, "fair_value": 28.11936, "relative_strength": 3.757254, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.000214, "energy": 22.514967, "activity_lines": [ 39.541667, 40.498909, 40.659405, 39.684634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.889999, "volume": 682, "typical_volume": 4050.85, "trend": 38.343833, "fair_value": 28.181889, "relative_strength": 4.322278, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.129481, "energy": 22.692396, "activity_lines": [ 39.500333, 40.280545, 40.654524, 39.80086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }