{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d319887b-016b-4386-a612-1dc66a158e01", "symbol": "AG1", "name": "AUTO1 Group SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.422, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.952, "architecture_energy": 21.543, "architecture_maturity": 63.278, "architecture_confidence": 67.821, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.51, "rotation_up": 30.35, "upward_expansion": 65.38, "deceleration": 85.2, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 17.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.109333, 23.694182, 22.681524, 21.617893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.58, "trend_reference": 21.351, "distance_from_trend": 0.010725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.79009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36668, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.575813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122764, "excess_performance": -0.297011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010725, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13487, "relative_activity": 1.648032, "balance": 1.087959, "dry_up": 1.332374, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107436, "annualized_volatility": 0.673114, "from_high_reference": -0.312301, "from_low_reference": 0.473038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.351, "fair_value_reference": 15.79009, "structural_low": 14.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.090079, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.079327, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.26188, "worst_return": -0.341922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096085, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170661, "worst_return": -0.222479, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.250781, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.303905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24764, "worst_return": -0.313599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075848, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 21.817, "fair_value": 15.614333, "relative_strength": -19.32921, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.49514, "energy": 53.07301, "activity_lines": [ 24.7, 24.267636, 22.420238, 21.556989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.82, "volume": 15566, "typical_volume": 7739.3, "trend": 21.639, "fair_value": 15.703321, "relative_strength": -22.044613, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.882024, "energy": 28.132953, "activity_lines": [ 24.090666, 24.106182, 22.625286, 21.621699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.58, "volume": 13487, "typical_volume": 8183.7, "trend": 21.351, "fair_value": 15.79009, "relative_strength": -27.575813, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.952017, "energy": 21.542847, "activity_lines": [ 23.109333, 23.694182, 22.681524, 21.617893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }