{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d31b4ac5-3951-47ed-a799-c83ac400cfe5", "symbol": "CCA", "name": "Change Financial Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.297, "architecture_energy": 94.187, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.28, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 85.23, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0552, 0.062927, 0.0693, 0.072822 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.0758, "distance_from_trend": -0.340369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.068519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.288737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.358974, "excess_performance": -0.42268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.340369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011089, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.270278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.542098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.483757, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.084526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3334623, "relative_activity": 1.503231, "balance": 0.084526, "dry_up": 2.706938, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133077, "annualized_volatility": 0.622965, "from_high_reference": -0.52381, "from_low_reference": 0.041667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0758, "fair_value_reference": 0.068519, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.004589, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.263889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005054, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029091, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.237119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072464, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.045643, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.363895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083855, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.574468, "worst_return": -0.400006, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.242857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 1746277.05, "trend": 0.077483, "fair_value": 0.068513, "relative_strength": -5.000466, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.541068, "energy": 9.945352, "activity_lines": [ 0.0756, 0.074818, 0.077505, 0.078211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.072, "volume": 1096693, "typical_volume": 1593546.3, "trend": 0.077583, "fair_value": 0.068654, "relative_strength": -7.140107, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.7798, "energy": 15.652535, "activity_lines": [ 0.074533, 0.074182, 0.076767, 0.077857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.052, "volume": 14057172, "typical_volume": 2078400.55, "trend": 0.077, "fair_value": 0.068673, "relative_strength": -32.19107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.890089, "energy": 80.374683, "activity_lines": [ 0.0668, 0.070145, 0.074186, 0.076206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.051, "volume": 5530758, "typical_volume": 2233202.55, "trend": 0.076467, "fair_value": 0.068615, "relative_strength": -34.44762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.38456, "energy": 92.521654, "activity_lines": [ 0.0602, 0.066436, 0.071686, 0.074529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 3334623, "typical_volume": 2218304.1, "trend": 0.0758, "fair_value": 0.068519, "relative_strength": -37.288737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.297185, "energy": 94.187362, "activity_lines": [ 0.0552, 0.062927, 0.0693, 0.072822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }