{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d31c0e15-1097-414b-a77b-cdd144a05483", "symbol": "BP", "name": "BP p.l.c.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.132, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.954, "architecture_energy": 20.553, "architecture_maturity": 33.236, "architecture_confidence": 69.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.11, "rotation_up": 53.85, "upward_expansion": 32.56, "deceleration": 47.12, "rotation_down": 17.12, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 530.536667, 516.128182, 524.100316, 526.659585 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 517.2, "trend_reference": 518.659891, "distance_from_trend": -0.002815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 455.397349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.969436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082162, "excess_performance": 0.030926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 363686679, "relative_activity": 1.958806, "balance": 0.999768, "dry_up": 1.284696, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063484, "annualized_volatility": 0.325432, "from_high_reference": -0.1512, "from_low_reference": 0.295596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 518.659891, "fair_value_reference": 455.397349, "structural_low": 440.941373, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065191, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.048736, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.193501, "worst_return": -0.029193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026601, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.014256, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249718, "worst_return": -0.019799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.04038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345806, "worst_return": -0.140431, "sufficient": true }, { 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27.046005, "activity_lines": [ 529.323333, 515.606363, 526.167862, 526.556557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 517.2, "volume": 363686679, "typical_volume": 185667560.4, "trend": 518.659891, "fair_value": 455.397349, "relative_strength": -0.969436, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.954146, "energy": 20.552874, "activity_lines": [ 530.536667, 516.128182, 524.100316, 526.659585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }